Across the major East-West head haul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Med, 105 canceled sailings have been announced between week 39 (23 Sep-29 Sep) and week 43 (21 Oct-27 Oct), out of a total of 693 scheduled sailings, representing 15% cancellation rate, reports Drewry.
Weekly analysis: 20 September 2024
During this period, 64% of the blank sailings will occur on the Transpacific Eastbound, 24% on the Asia-North Europe and Med, and 12% on the Transatlantic Westbound trade.
Over the next five weeks, OCEAN Alliance has announced 26 cancellations, followed by THE Alliance and 2M with 18 and 17 cancellations, respectively. During the same period, 44 blank sailings have been implemented by non-Alliance services.
As can be seen in the chart above, there is a decline in the schedule reliability; on average 85% of the ships are expected to sail as scheduled, over the next five weeks.
Freight rates on important East-West trade routes continued to drop due to low demand. On 19 September, Drewry’s WCI Composite Index dropped 5% WoW to $3,970 per 40ft container. Transpacific rates contracted by 8% and those on Asia-North Europe/Med fell 3%, while Transatlantic rates rose by 2%.
A U.S. East Coast strike seems likely in two weeks due to stalled negotiations and union rejection of government arbitration. Alternative terminals in Canada and the U.S. West Coast may struggle to handle redirected East Coast cargo, with some shippers already diverting shipments to avoid disruptions. Shippers and BCOs should be prepared for a possible rise in shipping costs from Europe to the U.S. East Coast, Gulf Coast, Caribbean, Mexico, and Canada, as several carriers have already announced new opportunistic emergency operation surcharges set to take effect next month.
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Source: Drewry
