- Most EMEA port operators are financially resilient amid tariff tensions.
- Limak and Euroports face elevated credit risk due to limited rating headroom.
- Fitch revises EMEA seaport sector outlook to ‘deteriorating’ from ‘neutral’
Most Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) port operators remain well-positioned to withstand increasing global trade tensions and economic slowdown, according to Fitch Ratings. However, operators such as Limak and Euroports face more pressure due to limited financial buffers even before the latest tariff measures announced by the US, according to Fitch Ratings.
Macroeconomic Impact of Tariff Policy
The unpredictability of US tariff policy and the potential reshaping of trade routes are expected to directly impact EMEA port volumes. Indirect effects could also emerge, including reduced business confidence, weaker demand, credit tightening, supply chain disruptions, and delayed capital investments. Fitch projects global growth to fall to 2.2% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, with eurozone growth stabilizing around 1% over the next two years.
Sectors most vulnerable to tariff shifts include chemicals, automotive, technology, and steel. However, China’s shift toward new trade partners may benefit European ports through trade diversion.
Port Volumes and Congestion Trends
In the first quarter of 2025, EMEA ports saw year-on-year trade volume increases in the high single digits. By the second quarter, congestion intensified at major northern European hubs due to a surge in pre-tariff shipments. This reflects importers’ efforts to front-load cargo from Asia ahead of the next tariff deadlines.
Varying Exposure Among Port Operators
Fitch states that while no rated EMEA seaport is completely immune to the effects of US tariffs, exposure levels differ. ABP and Euroports are most directly exposed to US volumes. Boluda, due to its towage-focused model, is the least impacted. ABP, based in the UK, also benefits from a bilateral trade deal with the US.
Resilience Through Diversification and Flexibility
Several port operators possess characteristics that support stability under stress, such as pricing power, diversified cargo and geography, long-term shipping partnerships, and stable non-volumetric revenue streams like cruise and rental fees. Strong cash flows and flexible capital expenditure further help limit refinancing risk, especially for operators with medium-term debt maturities.
DP World and Boluda benefit from broad international operations. Abu Dhabi Ports and NamPort have credit profiles closely tied to their respective sovereign governments. Turkish port operator Limak, whose US exports make up less than 3% of its cargo, may gain from higher tariffs imposed on competitors like China and India.
Pressure Points: Limak and Euroports
Credit pressure has risen most sharply for Limak and Euroports due to their already constrained financial profiles, changes in shareholding, and exposure to markets sensitive to tariffs. These factors leave them with less rating headroom. Nonetheless, both firms have shown discipline by keeping capex flexible and maintaining dividend restrictions in the near term.
Revenue Buffer May Not Offset Prolonged Trade War
Even in weak economic periods, port revenues have historically outperformed volumes due to pricing flexibility and long-term contracts. However, if the trade war extends, port revenues could come under more stress, especially if shipping firms begin renegotiating contract terms. This could gradually impact ratings, particularly for more vulnerable operators.
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Source: Fitch ratings
