Europe Bracing for COVID19 Second Wave, Better Testing Needed

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  • UK may see the second big wave of coronavirus, if it reopens schools without with less number of testing, says a study.
  • To make the schools function full-time, it is essential to diagnose 75% of people with COVID-19 symptoms and trace 68% of their contacts.
  • In England, only 50% of the contacts of those tested are found and tested on the basis of test-and-trace system, says research lead Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths.
  • In case the level of diagnoses and contact tracing goes below as identified by the study with schools open at full-time, a second wave would be triggered.
  • The second wave would touch the peak in December 2020 and 2.0 to 2.3 times of the original COVID-19 wave.

A recent news report published in the Reuters written by Estelle Shirbon highlights about the possible second wave UK might face if people are not diagnosed and isolated effectively as per the test-and-trace system.

Study on the impact of reopening schools

Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelled the impact of reopening schools, combined with continuing to gradually ease social-distancing measures, under a range of scenarios.

  • The virus’s effective reproduction number, known as R, would rise above 1, will trigger a second wave, if the levels of diagnoses and contact tracing goes down identified by the study.
  • Nearly, 46,000 fatalities have occured in Britain due to coronavirus.
  • The studies concerning the virus should enhance the test-and-trace system rather than as a reason to keep the schools shut, says Chris Bonell, one of its authors.

Concerns of local government minister

The government wants all pupils to return to school by early September, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson calling this a national priority.

According to junior local government minister Simon Clarke, the system is being constantly tweaked to make it more effective.  Moreover, officials mull at whether there should be a physical follow-up if some people could not be reached by phone.

The actual data of test-and-trace system

The latest official data for the period July 16-22 is,

  • The test-and-trace system reached 81% of people who tested positive.
  • The 81% of those it reached provided the details of their contacts. The system reached 75% of those contacts.

European countries brace up for second wave

A second wave is to hit France in autumn or winter warns the government’s scientific body, as the new cases in last two weeks steeply increases.

In Germany, the doctors’ union revealed that it was already contending with a second wave.

The main cause for this second wave is the disregard for social-distancing guidelines that risked squandering the country’s early success in containing the virus.

Social distancing and use of masks 

Experts and government officials urge that people should maintain social distance and use masks to contain the spread of the virus.

French authorities have already started to tighten public hygiene rules, with cities such as Lille, Nice and Toulouse ordering people to wear masks in busy pedestrian streets.

“It’s important to continue to respect guidelines against kissing and shaking hands, to wear masks, wash your hands with antibacterial gel, and be careful when the grandchildren come to visit, because the virus is still circulating in our country,” French President Emmanuel Macron said.

In France, 3,376 new cases has been confirmed over the last three days.

The number of people being treated in intensive care wards for the disease has started to edge upwards.

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Source: Reuters