According to Alphaliner, Far East–Europe spot freight rates are collapsing even as carriers struggle with a persistent shortage of ships. The data highlights a widening gap between vessel deployment needs and actual fleet availability on key Asia–Europe loops.
Persistent Gaps in Fleet Deployment
Nearly two years after global carriers began rerouting Asia–Europe services via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Red Sea disruptions, several loops remain understaffed. According to recent industry data, the nine largest liner operators require 461 vessels to fully man all 31 Far East–Europe services operated by the major alliances. Yet, as of mid-September, only 425 ships were in active deployment, leaving a shortfall of 36 vessels needed to maintain uninterrupted weekly sailings.
Limited Options to Plug Capacity Gaps
With the global idle fleet at historically low levels and the spot charter market lacking large vessels, carriers face severe limitations in bridging these gaps. Last summer, a similar shortage of tonnage caused spot freight rates from China to North Europe to surge to levels not seen since the COVID-19 boom.
Rate War Eclipses Market Fundamentals
Despite the unresolved Red Sea crisis and persistent vessel shortages, the upward pressure on freight rates has now collapsed. Over the past ten weeks, spot rates from Shanghai to North Europe have fallen by 45%, including sharp double-digit declines in the most recent three weeks.
This dramatic reversal strongly suggests the onset of a rate war among major operators, as competition intensifies and carriers undercut each other to secure cargo.
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Source: Alphaliner
