Fearnleys published its weekly tanker report for Week 4 on January 24, 2024.
VLCC
In the MEG, KPC fixing ws59.5 to China on Tuesday came as a bit of a shock (Note – Bitr at ws61.33, but rates inputted 10 mins prior to the KPC deal released). Most Market watchers were expecting Owners to hold the line in the ws60’s, however, tonnage lists rarely lie and with 7+ offers in, the pressure took its toll. From here, Charterers will be looking to drag the market further down through the ws50’s, despite a few market quotes fresh today and a decent volume count for February – we count 50+ fixtures already completed for the month.
The Atlantic is what often spurs the VL market into life and there is a feel of subsurface activity and plenty of cargoes reported the board (however, one is denied, one has own ship, and one I am sure is a fabrication). Yes, plenty of ships in the West or heading West, so no turnaround yet in market direction yet, but we have seen these markets change quickly. However, there is little support from the smaller sizes (although Afras still earning $50k+), with Smaxes coming off 10 points in Wafr, so therefore on VL’s, USG/China is now flirting with the $9m level and Wafr/East around the ws60 level.
Suezmax
East market has its own climate right now with firm sentiment continuing to spill over from events in the Red Sea. MEG/Malacca last traded at 130KT at WS 140 whilst MEG/Med last done remains 140KT x WS105 (via cape). There’s a degree of self sanctioning by Charterers when it comes to transitting the Suez canal but no shortage of Owners happy to take up that challenge, albeit for a premium.
Atlantic is in free fall with rates yet to bottom out. Without the US Gulf support, there is unlikely to be a turn around this week.
Aframax
Aframax market in general in the West has softened and Nsea is no exception. Crude cargoes have been very limited and covering out to end month with a lot of relets being programmed for the remaining stems in January. We have seen a a number of fuel oil export requirements both to Med and TA over the last week which has taken a few vessels out of area. List for natural Nsea vessels remain relatively tight for any replacement requirements but should start to open up again for early month.
Tonnage in the Mediterranean continues to roll back around with enough to cover current supply which is somewhat wanting. Charterers are not struggling to get numbers that work for them with Owners there to fix what’s available; earnings are still good and not much hope elsewhere with USG soft and the North less than inspiring. Black Sea with fewer ships for prompter Canakkale cancelling but a weaker Suezmax market will keep the pressure on as we look for increased demand in the Med to help bottom out the downward trend.
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Source: Fearnpulse
