Fearnpulse summarizes the weekly tanker report for the 1st week of 2024.
VLCC
A shorter week as 2024 kicks in and rates continue to drift further south. At the time of writing, MEG/China clings to the WS 50s (on 2023 flats), but this line in the sand will likely be tested as the week draws on. Tonnage is plentiful and TCE’s remain decent, so there is scope for owners to consider below last done. Charterers continue to pick targets from the shadows, so deals going unreported, but January is already up to 100+ deals and the 3rd decade is yet to be touched.
The Atlantic is a little different. Plenty of ships still (we count 12 sitting prompts), but owners are trying to play the waiting game. Aframaxes firming in the USG, and Suezmaxes also starting to move positively. So, dollars/bbl could soon look attractive on a VLCC. Mind you, there are quite a few VLs there to soak this up. A West African cargo being worked, attracting few offers, and the Petrobras deal fixing a vessel from the US West coast at WS 55.25 East and WS 64 UKCM, dragging us onto the new 2024 WS rates. The smaller sizes need to move up a bit quicker to help out their bigger sisters.
Suezmax
The Suezmax market is slowly waking from its holiday slumber, with an emphasis on “slowly”. In the East, there has been a less than auspicious start with the only signs of life coming from short-haul Indian cargoes. TD23 “should” have been the big story to kick start 2024, with the Red Sea slap bang in the middle of the headline. But thus far, and despite the furore, rates are unlikely to reflect much upside (if any). We are pricing that run at circa WS 80 (2023 basis rates).
Despite an overtly well-stocked tonnage list, the Atlantic is a tad more positive with present TD20 rates holding up well (WS 107.5 basis 2023 flatrates). Support also comes from the USG where TA runs may yet bring some further New Year cheer.
Aframax
With stormy weather hitting the North Sea, we have seen some weather delays over the Xmas and New Year’s period. Charterers have searched the tonnage list for vessels with safe itineraries to avoid delays. This combined with a firming USG market with tonnage likely to ballast out of the area, will maintain rates at current levels, at least up to mid-month January dates.
It’s a tough start to 2024 in the Mediterranean with supply coming slow. Tonnage is top-heavy with a mass of prompt ships that will look for opportunities elsewhere with the Mediterranean yet to spark excitement. Not much hope for owners this side of the weekend with rates to remain steady with downward pressure whilst demand continues to outweigh supply, making a rising USG market all the more enticing for owners.
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Source: Fearnleys
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