Fearnleys Weekly Report – Week 38,2023

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Credit: world wide market reports

Tankers

VLCC

A week for the owning community to savour. With a tightening position list and charterers looking to cover the start of their October program, MEG rates have ticked up. A solid WS 41 paid to Taiwan early this week shows modern tonnage can push when needed. Next done, pick a number in the WS 40’s. Older/disadvantaged tonnage may offer an escape valve, but they are increasingly in short supply, as we have seen ex dd’s quickly picked off by those who can. TD3C paper has jumped +10 point for the next few months which will also help sentiment, even if it is people look to go long where they can.

As for the Atlantic, close to USD 8m paid off end October dates USG/China, following on from an early October replacement deal at similar levels. This highlights the tightness of the list for any October dates in the USG, with many vessels that are there wishing to stay West, not willing to see out Q4 at current levels. Many ships on uncertain itineraries too, reluctant to commit in danger of running late. USD 6.4m paid for USG/WC India twice, a little old and a perfect run for a Bahri relet. With West Africa/East now at WS 49.5, owners will not have to work hard to build on that.

Suezmax

The global Suezmax market is showing latent signs of potential with West Africa and MEG arguably the most interesting load zones. The MEG list is very tight for 20 ton crane availability (first decade October), which has underpinned rates this week. As we go to print, WS 100 is on subs for a Fujairah/East voyage (1-10/10 window), with no apparent downside, despite the background threat of cannibalization from VLCCs.

In the Atlantic, there is a perception, although possibly misplaced, that a weak USG market will start to weigh down TD20. We’re not completely comfortable with this perception as the make-up of the list (7-12 October) in West Africa is not that straightforward and even more pertinent, prompt USG ships are unlikely to ballast across the pond as an active USG VLCC market bodes positively for the weeks ahead.

Aframax

North

It has been quite a sluggish week for Aframax owners trading in the North Sea. Lack of activity has kept rates at bottom levels and the tonnage list is building up. However, some owners might turn their bow towards the Mediterranean as that market looks a bit more interesting. A positive recovery can only be expected once we move into October fixing dates.

Mediterranean

Tables turned quickly in the Mediterranean earlier this week as charterers kept coming out with end-September inquiries and the position list suddenly got tighter. Sentiment is changing and owners are in the mood to push for more and more now. October dates have started kicking in and if activity remains healthy, we will probably see further improvement on the rates.

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Source : fearn pulse

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