Fearnleys Weekly Report – Week 46, 2021

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Capital link Shipping has published the 46th week of Fearnleys Weekly Report.

Tankers

VLCC

Much of the recent news about oil production and consumption remains very up-beat, barring the odd Covid hiccup. However, inside of our VLCC market bubble, the positivity is yet to spill in to owners’ daily returns.

As the week has progressed, rates have been steady and soft, with charterers able to pull a point or so from the MEG/East rates (down to WS 42.5 for TD3C), helped by the lull prior to the December stem date release. The Atlantic has promised much, yet stuttered and failed to spring to life (Wafr/East to test in the mid WS 40’s).

Some owners are ballasting modern vessels in that direction on speculation of an improvement. December usually heralds better returns, but nothing has been close to normal in the last few years. Charterers need to keep what they are doing, and owners need to keep the faith.

Suezmax

The fourth quarter is failing to deliver and it all feels very bleak. Owners haven’t helped their cause by maintaining a code of silence, despite a large tranche of vessels going on subjects in the last twenty four hours. OTC markets thrive on loose tongues otherwise the benchmarking process of the underlying spot market is significantly compromised.

Additionally, VLCCs have only the feintest of pulses, and without the threat of “rate-crossover” East Suezmax markets have no short-term chance of sparking into life. Lists remain long in all regions and rates could take a further dive if present enquiry levels persist. Td20 is fighting to hang onto high WS 60’s whilst Wafr/East will do well to stay above WS 70.

Td23 trades about the WS 30 mark and MEG/East is showing signs of weakness in the mid/high WS 60’s range.

Aframax

Aframax activity in the North Sea and Baltic came to a halt this week. Inevitably rates came off on the back of a longer tonnage list and less cargoes quoted in the market. Going forward we expect the market to remain soft, and we could also see a further decrease in rates.

Much of the same can be said about the Mediterranean/Black Sea market where rates have come off due to there are not being enough cargoes to satisfy the tonnage build up which is currently keeping the rates in favor of charterers. Neither in the Mediterranean/Black Sea we expect rates to firm in the short run.

DryBulk

Capesize

After last week’s positive start sentiment changed as more available tonnage came into the market with owners chasing charterers’ attention with lower and lower freight. The iron ore route from West Australia to China is down by 17% and iron ore from Brazil to China down 8%.

The combination of all time charter routes down USD 6693. On a positive note, we see there is very few ballasters left for Brazil and a very healthy list of vessels preforming West Australia to China. This indicates that the massive amount of vessels that came open after the congestion drop now is employed.

Panamax

From believing to have found a logical bottom last week, the Panamax market has continued to slide into this week. Even though we see more demand in the North Atlantic, it is not enough to absorb the growing tonnage list.

P1A is currently priced in the mid 20’s. Shorter Murmansk rounds have although been concluded in the low 30’s. The Pacific has taken a beating this week, especially the Aussie rounds. The Pacific rounds are currently priced around 20k.

Supramax

Supramax spot remains down from previous week with rate reductions as much as 25% in the Atlantic and more than 50% in the Far East. The period activity is close to zero as both owners and charterers waiting to see where this market will land. Rates from the Med and Black Sea was falling with less activity as one would expect during this season.

The Continent seems more balanced, and rates are still at reasonable levels. Scrap cargo to the Med paying USD 38k pd, trips to USG/ECSA in the mid USD 30k pd, and front haul, which is not a lot, still paying above USD 40k pd. USG and ECSA have been more active and indexes climbing up slightly.

Levels are stable with some premium been paid for front hauls. Fixtures reported high USD 40k pd going East and mid USD 30k for Atlantic round voyages. The Indian Ocean has been under pressure, however rates were more stable compared to the Far Eastern markets. Trips from MEG to China paid USD 25k pd on Supra. The Pacific market feared worst, and there were rumours that Supra fixing below USD 15k pd.

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Source: Capitallinkshipping

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