Fearnleys Weekly Report

76

Tankers

VLCC

Some expect charterers might sit on their hands and let some steam escape this week. However, this morning suggests otherwise, as a few quoted MEG cargoes coming in for the early 2nd decade and owners will push the increased activity in their favour. A few quiet days (Friday and Monday) often lead to a wobble, and we saw a little profit taken by handicapped vessels (Ex dd/change of tech) as TCE’s remained healthy and owners did not want to miss the opportunity. However, we are back to the WS 80 level MEG/China with expectations of more.

The Atlantic taking a back seat after driving the market last week. Enquiry remains, however; with a stronger MEG market, potential ballasters will have a choice. Wafr remains quiet, but WS 80 is attainable to China and USG/Ningbo likely to rebound back towards the USD 9m level.

Suezmax

The enigma of the East Suezmax market continues as despite very little surface level enquiry, ships continue to disappear. When you break down the list, there aren’t many well-approved FOC vessels until early September, which shows how busy this region has been off-market. With this in mind and against a backdrop of firming V’s MEG/East should trade minimum WS 135’ish. The Atlantic is interesting with a busy Mediterranean market likely to hold some ships away from West Africa whilst USG/TA is 145KT x WS 125 with a stable feel (Although USG Afras are possibly a little softer). Despite a chunk of second decade Wafr being taken out by VLCCs, the stark reality of the New Atlantic market is that it doesn’t necessarily have to rely on a busy Wafr market to remain relatively stable…oh how things have changed.

Aframax

End of last week we had limited activity in the 3rd decade of the August loading window resulting in a temporary dip in Nsea Aframax rates. However, this week started on a busier note, and the tonnage list thinned out on the back of quite a few owners ballasting away from the area. Owners have managed to push rates back into the WS 190s. Going forward we expect the current fixing window to stay steady/firm. Aframaxes have been trading sideways in the Med/Blsea area the past week. On a positive note, we have seen cargo activity pick up somewhat beginning of this week. Though owners showing resistance and eyeing their choices – we still haven’t seen this materialize in any significant improvement in rates yet. We expect the area to remain steady/firm in the near term.

Rates

Dirty(Spot WS 2021, Daily Change)

1 Year T/C (USD/Day, Weekly Change)

VLCCs

1 Year T/C Crude

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Source: Fearnleys

 

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