Fitch Sees Big Port Divide in 2026 as Trade Pressures Mount

The ‘deteriorating’ outlook reflects declining cargo volumes in North America’s port sector, with credit pressures expected to persist into 2026. Current US tariffs on imported raw construction materials are lifting capital input costs, influencing the size, timing and design of port investment plans.

EMEA continues to navigate Red Sea and Suez security concerns that are forcing extended Cape of Good Hope rerouting, sanctionsrelated rerouting tied to the Russia-Ukraine war and soft activity in Germany and the UK, all of which are pressuring volumes. Trade uncertainty may further reduce throughput both directly and indirectly by weakening goods demand and disrupting supply chains.

APAC benefits from strong intraregional trade and limited reliance on US flows, supporting a ‘neutral’ outlook despite global disruptions. Latin America remains resilient, with maritime trade supported by agricultural exports and ongoing market diversification.

Recent US bilateral trade agreements with several APAC countries and a modest US-China deescalation offer near-term relief, yet lingering frictions keep 2026 outcomes dependent on further policy moves. The global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions remain key variables for seaports performance in 2026.