According to an analysis published by The Baltic Exchange in November 2025, the dry bulk shipping sector is heading into 2026 with a complex mix of optimism and caution. While the broader outlook for trade remains constructive, underlying data from Clarksons indicates an emerging divide between vessel segments. Some ship types are positioned for sustainable growth, while others face a structural imbalance between new capacity and real trade demand.
At the Baltic Dry FFA Forum in Geneva, Louisa Follis, Director and Head of Dry Cargo Analysis at Clarksons, noted that nearly 600 new bulk carriers are scheduled for delivery next year—marking the largest influx in a decade. Yet, this expansion is not evenly distributed. The capesize sector, which handles major cargoes like iron ore and bauxite, shows a more contained supply profile. Demolition activity has kept the net fleet additions modest, and although a slight increase in deliveries is expected in 2026, overall growth remains manageable.
Capesizes hold a stronger position
By contrast, the panamax and geared segments face a tougher environment, with Clarksons projecting net fleet growth of around 4 percent for next year—a substantial jump that risks outpacing demand. On the demand side, capesizes appear to be in a stronger position. Iron ore trade is seeing renewed momentum, driven by new sources and longer trade routes. Emerging supply from non-traditional producers could push volumes toward 60 million tonnes by 2027 and beyond 100 million tonnes by the end of the decade.
Bauxite exports from West Africa are also expected to add tonne-mile growth for larger vessels. Altogether, demand expansion in the capesize market could match—or even surpass—fleet growth, setting the stage for a more balanced and resilient segment.
Smaller vessels face structural challenges
For smaller vessels, however, the story is less straightforward. Panamaxes and geared ships are supported by some positive trends, such as increased grain trade from South America and higher fertilizer shipments, yet even these gains may not be enough to absorb the influx of new capacity. The issue is compounded by shifting trade patterns: shorter haul routes and changing cargo flows are reducing tonne-mile demand.
Recent examples, like the sharp drop in U.S. exports to China, illustrate how such shifts can erode long-haul demand and affect vessel utilization. These differences point to a structural divide within the dry bulk market. Capesizes are benefiting from firm fundamentals—limited supply growth and expanding trade volumes—while panamax and smaller geared vessels are entering a more crowded, less certain space. The imbalance between fleet expansion and realistic demand expectations could lead to softer market conditions for the latter group.
Key variables to watch in 2026
Looking ahead, analysts will be watching several variables. The delivery schedule for newbuilds appears largely on track, suggesting that supply-side relief through construction delays is unlikely. Demolition activity could help offset some of the increase, but the extent depends on freight earnings and regulatory pressures.
Trade flow adjustments and geopolitical shifts will also play crucial roles, particularly if they affect long-haul cargo routes that drive tonne-mile demand. Despite the broad optimism surrounding dry bulk shipping, the market is far from uniform. The coming year is expected to reinforce a clear divide between vessel classes: capesizes with steady fundamentals and smaller ships facing structural challenges.
A two-speed market
For shipowners and charterers alike, the key will be to recognize these differences and position accordingly in what is shaping up to be a two-speed dry bulk market. Understanding where growth truly lies—and where overcapacity could bite—will determine who thrives and who struggles in the next shipping cycle.
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Source: Baltic Exchange
