Forecasting the Future By An Overview Of The LNG Market

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Credit: LNG Prime

In 2023, China’s LNG imports rebounded with a 5% growth in gas demand, while Northeast Asia is expected to see a modest 0.3% growth, totaling 206.4 MMt due to declining natural gas demand in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Nonetheless, LNG imports are projected to rise to 218.7 MMt in 2024 and further to 225.8 MMt in 2025, driven by nuclear reactor restarts and increased renewable energy production, impacting natural gas consumption in the power and industrial sectors.

Northeast Asia LNG Import Forecast

Credit: Poten & Partners

Anticipate significant winter growth in LNG imports primarily driven by , expected to rise from 34.8 MMt to 43.7 MMt. Japan also sees a modest increase from 35.7 MMt to 36.8 MMt, while South Korea experiences a decline in imports.

Chinese LNG imports are estimated to average 7.3 MMt per month from Oct 2023 to Mar 2024, supported by ample coal supplies and increased pipeline exports from Russia in 2024.

Winter LNG Import Forecast

Credit: Poten and Partners

European gas inventories declined by 38 Bcm from 93.4 Bcm to 55.6 Bcm during Oct 2022 to Mar 2023. Forecasts indicate a steeper drop from 974 Bcm to 44.5 Bcm in the same period in 2023-2024, requiring higher LNG imports.

Reduced electricity consumption and renewables expansion contributed to a 2023 demand drop to 442 Bcm, with a subsequent 2% and 1% rise to 454 Bcm and 457 Bcm in 2024 and 2025.

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Source: Poten & Partners