- Tariff changes and trade agreements are yet to fully translate into freight market impacts due to implementation lags, while new sector-specific tariffs may emerge.
- Ocean spot rates across major lanes continue to slide, with Asia–North America and Asia–Europe prices now 60–70% below last year, reflecting both early frontloading of cargo and rising overcapacity.
- Air cargo rates have remained largely stable despite shifts in trade flows, as carriers adjust freighter capacity between markets.
Although the US has reached agreements with certain trade partners, tariff reductions are not yet reflected in practice as implementation details are still being finalized. This delay means freight impacts will take longer to materialize. At the same time, recent US trade probes into pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber are concluding, raising the prospect of fresh sectoral tariffs. China is also sending a top trade negotiator to Washington following the 90-day extension of the 30% baseline tariffs on Chinese exports introduced in May. While some uptick in China–US shipping demand has been reported since the announcement, overall volumes remain subdued and rates continue to trend lower, driven by abundant vessel capacity, according to American Journal of transportation.
Ocean Freight Trends
Asia–North America traffic likely peaked in July, when many importers advanced shipments to avoid the August tariff deadline. Since then, transpacific spot rates have dropped 60–70% in a near-continuous slide. Asia–US West Coast prices fell 10% last week to $1,744/FEU, their lowest since December 2023, while East Coast rates plunged 21% to $2,733/FEU, marking a 34% drop in August alone. Transatlantic prices held steady at $2,284/FEU, though little immediate freight impact is expected from the US–EU trade deal, as auto tariff reductions remain pending and alcohol exports are not exempted. Carriers are meanwhile adjusting services to mitigate exposure to new US port call fees for Chinese vessels, which take effect in mid-October.
Asia–Europe lanes also appear past peak season strength. Extended lead times from Red Sea diversions are pushing shippers to complete movements by end-September, but despite strong demand and port congestion, carriers have struggled to lift rates. Asia–North Europe prices slipped 6% to around $3,100/FEU, while Mediterranean prices edged down 1% to $3,091/FEU—the lowest since May. Both trades are now 60% below last year’s levels, in line with transpacific’s 70% year-on-year fall, underscoring the weight of global overcapacity even as the orderbook for new vessels hits record highs.
De Minimis Policy and E-commerce Flows
The US will end de minimis exemptions for all low-value imports this Thursday. Earlier in May, the White House suspended de minimis eligibility for Chinese imports specifically, triggering reports of up to a 50% drop in direct e-commerce shipments from China to the US. Nevertheless, Chinese platforms have sustained growth by pivoting toward Europe, where e-commerce imports from China have doubled in value during the same period. This surge has sparked mounting opposition in Europe and the UK, where policymakers are considering ending de minimis rules altogether. The latest US changes have already led some European postal services to suspend handling of certain parcels due to regulatory uncertainty.
Spot Rate Movements – Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)
Asia–US West Coast: $1,744/FEU (↓10%)
Asia–US East Coast: $2,733/FEU (↓21%)
Asia–North Europe: $3,071/FEU (↓6%)
Asia–Mediterranean: $3,091/FEU (↓1%)
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Source: American Journal of Transportation
