Seven vessels carrying a total of 0.7bcm have so far been diverted from France since the strike started over a planned pension reform, five into northern Europe and two into Spain, according to preliminary Kpler and Refinitiv ship tracking data.
Operations Stopped
The four French terminals were stopped amid a strike that started on 6 March. The largest, the 13 bcm/year Dunkirk LNG terminal in northern France, will restart on Friday at 06:00 CET, while the Montoir-de-Bretagne (10 bcm), Fos Cavaou (10 bcm) and Fos Tonkin (1.5bcm) terminals will resume operations on Tuesday at 21:00 CET. There are at least another four vessels heading for French ports that have not yet changed their route, according to Kpler data. Kpler expects some of the LNG vessels on standby to be either diverted or postponed, “especially if the force majeure on Dunkerque LNG is further extended,” said Eleni Papadopoulou, Kpler lead natural gas analyst.
Calmer Markets
“There’s not really much of a net impact because they are still finding a home in Europe,” Ajayi said. The benchmark front month contract on the Dutch TTF hub is 4% lower than before the strike, with prices falling even after the strike was extended on Tuesday. “The strike is a bullish driver, but there are more bearish fundamentals,” said Ajayi referring to high storage levels and low gas demand amid mild weather and strong renewable output. The fundamentals indicate that the market is not tight, he said, adding “we are in a very, very bearish market”. Additionally, France has coped so far with no LNG by a reshuffling in gas pipeline flows and drawing more from gas storage sites, which has “calmed the market,” said Papadopoulou.
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Source: Montelnews
