- Sudan’s Bashayer terminal exports about 170,000 b/d of Dar and Nile Blend crude, with the UAE historically the top buyer at 44%.
- Much of the crude has been processed in Fujairah refineries, though one closed earlier this year, tightening capacity.
- Sudan’s conflict and its fallout with the UAE have raised risks for crude shipments, forcing traders to consider Asian buyers.
- A prior 13-month pipeline outage in South Sudan and renewed political instability continue to pressure regional crude flows.
A Sudanese crude tanker has been stranded off the coast of Fujairah for over a week, caught in the middle of rising diplomatic tensions between Sudan and the UAE. The situation underscores how political disputes can disrupt long-standing trade flows in the region, according to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Impact on Regional Crude Trade
Sudan’s Bashayer terminal serves as the sole export outlet for around 170,000 b/d of Dar and Nile Blend crude produced by Sudan and South Sudan. The UAE has been the largest buyer in recent years, accounting for nearly 44% of shipments from Port Sudan, followed by Malaysia, Italy, and Singapore, according to CAS data. A significant portion of these volumes has traditionally been processed at two refineries in Fujairah, one owned by Vitol and the other by Montfort Group, though Montfort halted operations earlier this year. Vitol is also the charterer of the stranded Pola vessel, CAS data showed.
The conflict in Sudan, which escalated in April 2023 from a power struggle between rival generals into a nationwide war, has reshaped the oil trade landscape. The Sudanese Armed Forces have accused the UAE of supporting the opposing paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, allegations that Abu Dhabi has denied. Tensions reached a peak in May when Sudan formally cut diplomatic ties with the UAE, shortly after drone attacks struck Port Sudan, raising concerns over the stability of exports.
If the restrictions remain in place, Sudanese and South Sudanese crude flows may face further disruption, with traders likely seeking new buyers in Asian markets. The situation follows a prolonged 13-month pipeline outage that reduced South Sudan’s crude production by more than two-thirds to about 40,000 b/d before operations resumed in January, according to the Platts OPEC+ Survey from Commodity Insights. Market participants also report that ongoing fighting has affected crude differentials and, at times, deterred shippers from docking in Sudan. Political uncertainty continues to weigh on the region, with fears of renewed civil conflict after the recent arrests of key South Sudanese leaders, which could place further pressure on crude exports and regional stability.
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Source: S&P Global
