The international shipping sector is finally being compelled to address its climate impact. Governments are gathering at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to ratify a decarbonisation framework for an industry that historically has been one of the more challenging sectors to regulate. This moment is one of rare global cooperation in an era of geopolitical tension and climate policy struggles.
Yet, while the new Net‑Zero Framework (NZF) is a crucial step forward, it contains significant flaws. If left uncorrected, it could steer shipping toward undesirable paths rather than meaningful climate solutions.
The core risks in the framework
Overreliance on first‑generation biofuels
A major weakness is the framework’s implicit encouragement of crop‑based biofuels (first‑generation biofuels). Because these fuels tend to be relatively inexpensive when used in blends, the NZF may inadvertently push shipping toward these as a compliance route. This is concerning for several reasons:
- Crop biofuels demand vast tracts of land, potentially contributing to deforestation and conversion of natural ecosystems, with large indirect emissions as a result.
- If the rules proceed unchecked, global demand for biofuels might double by the 2030s, which risks locking the shipping sector into a path that mitigates one climate problem but worsens another.
E‑fuels remain under‑incentivised
Meanwhile, green e‑fuels (synthetic fuels produced using low‑carbon electricity, hydrogen, etc.) are not given sufficient encouragement in the NZF. Without strong incentives or targets, they struggle to compete against cheaper, but environmentally problematic, crop biofuels.
Producers of green e‑fuels themselves have warned that the current NZF lacks the market signals necessary to attract investment. As a result, a meaningful uptake of e‑fuels may not materialize until the late 2040s — too late to meet many of the decarbonisation goals aimed for 2050.
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Source: Lloyd’s List
