- Vessel sanctions and deceptive shipping practices intensified, with expanded enforcement across sectors and a sharp rise in false flag registrations, particularly in the Netherlands Caribbean, Guyana, and Eswatini.
- GPS jamming incidents surged globally, especially during the Iran–Israel conflict, affecting over 13,000 vessels and triggering rerouting, false port calls, and compliance complications.
- Key transshipment hubs like Singapore and Busan experienced severe congestion, driven by Red Sea diversions, blank sailings, and inland logistics constraints, placing billions in trade at risk.
- Gray and Dark Fleet activity shifted noticeably, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a Gray Fleet hotspot and Comoros becoming a preferred flag for Dark Fleet operations, while scrutiny reduced Panama’s usage.
Maritime activity in Q2 2025 faced heightened disruptions driven by persistent geopolitical tensions. The quarter recorded the second-highest level of vessel sanctions since 2022, with enforcement expanding into new areas such as flag registries and financial services. Compounding these challenges, GPS jamming incidents — particularly during the Iran conflict — affected over 13,000 vessels worldwide, disrupting AIS signals and triggering large-scale cargo rerouting. These conditions led to significant congestion at key transit hubs, including Singapore and Busan, and had a marked impact on crude oil exports. The report offers in-depth analysis and practical recommendations for maritime stakeholders navigating these evolving risks, as outlined by Windward.
Sanctions and GPS Jamming Disrupt Global Vessel Operations in Q2 2025
Sanctions targeting vessels and maritime companies remained a dominant theme in Q2 2025, continuing the upward trajectory seen in the previous quarter. The number of sanctioned vessels reached another post-2022 high, driven not only by newly designated ships but also by previously sanctioned vessels receiving additional regulatory designations. However, the pace of sanctions against maritime companies slowed, returning to more typical levels after peaking in Q1. Despite this moderation, sanctions widened in scope, now extending to flag registries, financial institutions, and port operators. Notably, 60% of the newly sanctioned companies were based in just four countries: the UAE, Hong Kong, the Marshall Islands, and Panama.
At the same time, GPS jamming incidents posed serious navigational and operational challenges across the global maritime sector. More than 13,000 vessels experienced jamming disruptions in Q2 2025, with the average AIS signal “jump” distance remaining steady at approximately 6,300 km — the same as in the previous quarter. Windward’s monitoring team identified new jamming hotspots, particularly in the Arabian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea, which had seen no activity in Q1 but affected over 4,300 and 1,000 vessels respectively in Q2. The Baltic Sea also experienced a dramatic surge in interference, with over 2,000 vessels impacted — a 500% increase. In addition, the previously identified jamming corridor stretching from the Black Sea to the Gulf of Guinea expanded significantly, affecting over 800 vessels, up 568% from Q1.
Iran Conflict Drives Maritime Disruptions and Export Shifts in Q2 2025
The brief but impactful Iran–Israel conflict in June 2025 triggered a wave of maritime disruptions, primarily through a sharp escalation in GPS jamming activity. A newly emerged jamming hub in the Arabian Gulf saw more than 12,000 incidents between June 13–24, affecting over 3,000 vessels globally. This represented a 153% spike in the daily average of affected vessels compared to the rest of the quarter. The jamming also distorted AIS signals near key terminals such as Asaluyeh, Bandar Abbas, and Dubai, raising safety and security concerns across these high-traffic zones. On June 22 alone, over 1,700 vessels experienced interference, marking the peak of the disruption.
The conflict also influenced vessel traffic patterns, with Pakistan reporting a 21% increase in port calls during the June 13–24 period — indicating rerouting and shifting of regional operations. Crude oil exports were not immune to these events either. Data shows an 8% increase in June volumes compared to the monthly average for the rest of 2025, and an 8.6% rise from May. This spike was driven by a surge in loadings during June 9–15, as exporters sought to front-load shipments ahead of the conflict. Northeast Asia emerged as the primary destination for these exports, accounting for over 54% of the ~9 million barrels per day shipped that week. However, during the conflict week itself (June 16–22), exports dropped by roughly 24%, highlighting the immediate impact of regional instability on maritime trade.
Port Congestion, Fraudulent Flags, and Infrastructure Risks Shape Maritime Logistics in Q2 2025
Q2 2025 saw mounting pressure on global maritime logistics, with key transshipment hubs grappling with schedule disruptions and capacity strains. At the Port of Singapore, exceptions related to transshipment schedules surged — ‘TSP Changed’ incidents rose 65% and ‘TSP Rollover’ exceptions climbed 35% compared to Q1. These trends reflect increasing instability in cargo handling timelines, driven in part by the ongoing Red Sea crisis. Vessel diversions away from the conflict zone have overloaded regional ports, creating bottlenecks and longer turnaround times. Russell Group estimates that persistent congestion at Singapore, Port Klang, and Tanjung Pelepas has placed approximately $131 billion in trade at risk.
In Busan, the situation has become more severe. ‘POL Late Departure’ exceptions rose 54%, while ‘POL Rollover’ cases spiked by a staggering 556% in Q2. Bunching delays from early 2025 continued into the second quarter, with average vessel wait times reaching 1.5 days. This strain was compounded by inland logistics constraints due to the delayed redevelopment of the North Port. Global schedule reliability also deteriorated as blank sailings and carrier realignments — largely triggered by Red Sea security risks — led to widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, placing further strain on ports like Busan.
Meanwhile, critical maritime infrastructure faced growing risks. Drifting activity over strategic underwater cables and pipelines increased by 10% from Q1 and was 49% higher than the nine-month average. Most of these incidents involved vessels flagged under Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands, raising concerns over safety and intentional interference with essential subsea infrastructure. As these trends persist, they highlight the need for improved situational awareness and stronger safeguards across high-traffic maritime corridors.
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Source: Windward
