The significant decline in oil prices, triggered by the United States’ imposition of additional customs duties on goods from 185 countries and the resulting concerns about a potential global economic recession, has put substantial downward pressure on bunker fuel prices. By the conclusion of the 15th week of 2025 (ending around April 11th), the MABUX world bunker indices registered a sharp decrease across the board, reports MABUX on LinkedIn.
Global Scrubber Spread
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), which represents the price difference between 380 HSFO (Heavy Sulfur Fuel Oil) and VLSFO (Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil), experienced a slight increase of $1.51 this week, rising to $81.23 from $79.72 the previous week. This pushed the SS back above the $80.00 mark. However, the average weekly value of the global SS marginally decreased by $0.16.
Regionally, the SS showed mixed trends:
- In Rotterdam, the SS decreased by $1.00, falling to $45.00 from $46.00 last week, and the average weekly value for the port also declined by $3.17.
- In Singapore, the SS narrowed by $5.00, dropping to $65.00 from $70.00 in the previous week. Conversely, the average weekly value in Singapore increased by $3.00.
Overall, the Scrubber Spread indices have entered a phase of multidirectional fluctuations without a clear, consistent trend. Given the current high market volatility, these mixed dynamics are expected to continue into the next week.
In related news, EU countries are currently in discussions regarding potential changes to the mandatory gas storage rules for the years 2026 and 2027. The proposed revisions aim to replace the existing requirement of filling gas storage to 90% capacity by November 1st with a more flexible target, allowing this level to be reached at any point between October 1st and December 1st. Additionally, the current interim storage targets for February, May, July, and September may become voluntary in the future. However, the European Commission is advocating for a two-year extension of the current mandatory system.
This proposal is facing opposition from several European governments, including Germany, France, and the Netherlands, who argue that rigid targets artificially inflate gas prices by signaling a need for large-volume purchases within fixed deadlines, thereby increasing the risk of price manipulation.
Market Differential Index
After the 15th week of 2025, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) provided a comparison between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP), revealing the following trends across the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments:
380 HSFO Segment:
- Singapore transitioned back into the overvalued zone, becoming the sole port with overvalued 380 HSFO. The weekly average MDI in Singapore increased by 11 points.
- The remaining three ports, Rotterdam, Fujairah, and Houston, continued to be undervalued. The average undervaluation saw a slight decrease:
- Rotterdam: Undervaluation decreased by 1 point.
- Fujairah: Undervaluation decreased by 8 points.
- Houston: Undervaluation decreased by 16 points.
- The MDI in Rotterdam and Singapore remained close to the 100% correlation mark between the market price (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP), indicating a strong alignment between the assessed market price and the digital benchmark.
VLSFO Segment:
- All four selected ports (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston) remained in the undervalued zone for VLSFO.
- The weekly average MDI values showed a decrease in undervaluation for three ports:
- Rotterdam: Undervaluation decreased by 1 point.
- Singapore: Undervaluation decreased significantly by 18 points.
- Fujairah: Undervaluation decreased by 11 points.
- Houston was the exception, with the undervaluation in the VLSFO segment increasing by 1 point.
MGO LS Segment (Marine Gas Oil Low Sulfur):
- Rotterdam was the only port in the MGO LS segment that was overvalued, with the weekly average MDI increasing by a further 15 points.
- The other three ports, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston, were undervalued.
- Singapore: Undervaluation decreased by 1 point (MDI increased).
- Fujairah: Undervaluation increased by 8 points (MDI decreased).
- Houston: Undervaluation increased by 7 points (MDI decreased).
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
