At the close of Week 23 (May 27 – June 2, 2025), the global bunker indices published by MABUX demonstrated moderate gains across all three primary fuel types. This upward trend suggests a slight firming of the bunker market, which has continued to exhibit a moderate upward trajectory, reports MABUX on LinkedIn.
Global Scrubber Spread
The price difference between 380 HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil) and VLSFO (Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil), often referred to as the “SS Spread,” has shown mixed trends globally.
- Globally, the SS Spread increased by $2.34, moving from $71.43 last week to $73.77. The average weekly value of the global index also saw a modest increase of $0.64.
- In Rotterdam, the SS Spread rose by $5.00, from $43.00 to $48.00, with the port’s average weekly value up by $1.16.
- In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential widened by $2.00, reaching $66.00 from $64.00 last week. However, the average weekly value in Singapore declined by $2.34.
Overall, there’s no consistent trend emerging in the dynamics of the global or port-specific SS Spread indices, which continue to show fluctuations. With the SS Spread still well below the $100.00 breakeven threshold, conditions remain favorable for the continued use of conventional VLSFO over 380 HSFO paired with scrubbers. No significant changes in SS Spread dynamics are anticipated in the coming week.
According to a report by the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL), while the long-term outlook for LNG demand remains strong, short- and medium-term projections are increasingly uncertain. This uncertainty is attributed to volatile pricing, geopolitical tensions, and an uneven economic recovery in key Asian markets.
- Global LNG imports reached 405 million tonnes in 2024, a slight increase from 401 million tonnes in 2023.
- However, the report notes that growth is slowing, and regional dynamics are diverging.
- Market focus is now on Europe’s storage replenishment pace, LNG demand trends in Asia, and whether North Asia’s demand will increase enough to compete with Europe for spot cargoes.
As of June 3, European regional gas storage facilities were 49.20% full, representing an increase of 2.62 percentage points compared to the previous week. However, this is a decrease of 22.13 points from the beginning of the year (71.33%). A slight acceleration in the pace of storage replenishment has been observed. By the end of Week 23, the European gas benchmark TTF saw a moderate decline, falling by €1.158/MWh to €35.858/MWh from €37.006/MWh the previous week.
Market Differential Index
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), has revealed the following trends across major global bunkering hubs:
380 HSFO Segment:
- Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overvalued zone.
- Rotterdam’s weekly average MDI held steady. Notably, its MDI continues to align with the 100% correlation point between MBP and DBP, indicating a strong match between market and benchmark prices.
- Singapore’s weekly average MDI declined by 5 points.
- Fujairah and Houston were in the undervalued zone.
- Fujairah’s MDI rose by 2 points.
- Houston’s MDI fell by 2 points.
VLSFO Segment:
- Singapore shifted into the undervalued zone, now joining Fujairah and Houston.
- Singapore’s average MDI increased by 6 points.
- Fujairah’s average MDI increased by 3 points.
- Houston’s average MDI declined by 3 points.
- Rotterdam remained the sole overvalued port in this segment, with a 1-point increase in its average MDI.
- Both Rotterdam and Singapore are currently hovering near the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
MGO LS Segment:
- Rotterdam continued to be the only overvalued port, although its weekly average MDI dropped by 5 points.
- The remaining ports—Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—were undervalued.
- Singapore’s MDI rose by 2 points.
- Fujairah’s MDI fell by 2 points.
- Houston’s MDI experienced a significant drop of 15 points.
Overall, there were no major shifts in the overvalued/undervalued balance during the week, apart from Singapore’s transition to the undervalued zone in the VLSFO segment.
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Source: MABUX
