- 380 HSFO Falls Below USD 450 While MGO Nears USD 800.
- Scrubber Spread Widens Slightly, Remains Below USD 100 Mark.
- Europe’s Gas Market Tight but Stable as Storage Reaches 83%.
At the close of Week 45, the global bunker indices reported by MABUX didn’t show a clear trend. The 380 HSFO index took a dip, dropping by USD 5.51 to settle at USD 439.82/MT, slipping under the USD 450 threshold. Meanwhile, the VLSFO index saw a slight decrease of USD 1.84, landing at USD 509.43/MT, while the MGO index climbed up by USD 5.81 to reach USD 790.68/MT, getting closer to that USD 800 mark, reports LinkedIn.
Scrubber Spread Narrows But Shows Upward Momentum
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), which measures the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO, expanded moderately by USD 3.67 to USD 69.61, still below the USD 100 breakeven point. In Rotterdam, the SS increased by USD 3 to USD 27, while in Singapore, it jumped more significantly by USD 13 to USD 75. This moderate rise might suggest a short-term upward trend, although VLSFO continues to be more profitable than HSFO for those using scrubbers.
European Gas Market Stays Tight as Winter Nears
As winter approaches, Europe’s gas and LNG markets are tightly balanced, facing potential risks from supply disruptions and high seasonal demand. As of November 4, regional gas storage was at 83.02% capacity, up just 0.17% from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in filling rates. The TTF gas benchmark increased by €1.057/MWh to €32.551/MWh. On the other hand, LNG bunker prices in Sines (Portugal) dropped by USD 13 to USD 732/MT, which widened the price gap between LNG and traditional fuels to USD 48 in favour of LNG. This trend continues to bolster LNG’s position as a competitive marine fuel.
MDI Trends Show Growing Undervaluation
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) highlighted a growing undervaluation across key ports, Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston. For 380 HSFO, three ports showed undervaluation, while Houston remained overvalued. In the case of VLSFO, all four ports were undervalued, with Houston also joining this group. As for MGO LS, Singapore was slightly overvalued, while the other ports were undervalued.
Nordic Council Pushes for Arctic Black Carbon Rules
The Nordic Council has taken a significant step by adopting a resolution that calls on governments to advocate for new IMO regulations. These regulations would require ships operating in the Arctic to switch to low-black carbon polar fuels, such as DMA and DMZ. The proposal is set to be finalised by December 5, 2025, ahead of the IMO’s PPR13 session scheduled for February 2026. The goal here is to tackle the alarming rise in black carbon emissions, which have more than doubled over the last ten years. If this rule comes into effect, it could boost the demand for low-sulphur distillates and encourage more investment in clean fuel technologies for operations in the Arctic.
Outlook: Expecting Continued Mixed Movements
The global bunker markets are still showing signs of inconsistency, with varying dynamics across different regions. MABUX anticipates that we will see continued mixed price movements in the upcoming week, reflecting a period of adjustment and a cautious outlook throughout the sector.
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Source: LinkedIn
