- Scrubber Spread Narrows Below $100 Breakeven.
- Europe Cuts Russian Gas Reliance as LNG Supply Expands.
- LNG Prices Rise in Sines While Conventional Fuels Gain Edge.
At the close of the 38th week, the MABUX global bunker indices were a bit all over the place, lacking a clear direction. The 380 HSFO index saw a slight uptick, reaching $452.79/MT, while VLSFO took a dip down to $535.63/MT. On the flip side, the MGO index climbed up to $785.99/MT. Overall, we’re starting to see some early hints that a downward trend might be forming in the global bunker market, reports MABUX on LinkedIn.
Scrubber Spread Narrowing
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread, which measures the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO, has narrowed even further to $82.84, still sitting below the $100 breakeven point. In Rotterdam, the spread held steady at $68.00, while in Singapore, it ticked up to $80.00, even though the weekly average took a hit. These spreads are still quite volatile, and conventional VLSFO continues to show better profitability compared to the HSFO plus scrubber option.
European Gas Supply and LNG Outlook
Europe has made significant strides in reducing its reliance on Russian pipeline gas, dropping from over 40 per cent in 2021 to about 11 per cent in 2024. Instead, the continent is turning to Norway and the United States to fill that gap. The global LNG capacity is expected to surge from 550 bcm in 2024 to 890 bcm by 2030, driven by rapid expansion in the U.S. As of September 16, European gas storage facilities were 80.83 per cent full, while the TTF benchmark eased a bit to €32.329/MWh. Meanwhile, the LNG price in Sines shot up to $772/MT, although conventional fuels have managed to regain their cost edge.
MDI Market Dynamics
The latest MABUX Benchmark Market Differential Index showed minimal structural changes across major hubs. HSFO remained undervalued in all ports, with some mixed shifts, while VLSFO was mostly undervalued except in Houston. MGO LS also stayed in the undervalued range. Overall, the global bunker market has shown relative stability, with undervaluation still dominating the scene.
Effects of U.S. Sanctions and Mediterranean ECA
Integr8 Fuels reported that U.S. sanctions imposed in January 2025 have significantly altered global bunker logistics, displacing Russian cargoes and causing a surge in HSFO quality issues, particularly in Singapore and the ARA region. At the same time, the introduction of the Mediterranean Emission Control Area in May has reshaped bunker fuel demand. VLSFO’s share has dropped from 60 per cent in December 2024 to 35.6 per cent in June 2025, while demand for low-sulphur marine gasoil has more than doubled to 30 per cent. HSFO use increased to 30.1 per cent, driven by scrubber-fitted vessels, and ULSFO rose to 4.1 per cent. Biofuels remain a niche segment but are gradually expanding under ECA and FuelEU Maritime regulations.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
