By the end of Week 50, the global bunker fuel market displayed a largely stable performance, with moderate declines recorded across major MABUX indices. While price fluctuations remained subtle, market signals continued to suggest an environment of undervaluation, steady supply conditions, and shifting dynamics across fuel spreads. External factors such as European gas storage trends and emerging e-fuel developments in the Asia-Pacific region further shaped this week’s global bunker landscape.
Bunker Indices and Fuel Spreads Show Mild Declines and Divergent Trends
The 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO LS indices all recorded week-on-week declines, with MGO LS experiencing the steepest drop of USD 9.02. Despite these decreases, no sharp price movements were observed, indicating a stable market with low volatility.
The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) rose slightly to USD 82.77, remaining above USD 80.00 but still well below the USD 100.00 breakeven threshold. While Rotterdam’s SS Spread widened by USD 4, Singapore showed a narrowing by USD 2 demonstrating a lack of clear directional momentum across major ports.
With the expansion of Emission Control Areas, including the upcoming Mediterranean ECA, the comparison between ULSFO and MGO LS has gained prominence. Both Istanbul and Venice recorded narrowing ECA Spreads, though these remain at or above USD 100, continuing to favor ULSFO as the more cost-efficient fuel for ecozone compliance.
External Energy Markets and MDI Indicators Reinforce Undervalued Conditions
European gas markets remained balanced, supported by stable LNG send-outs and consistent Norwegian flows. Storage levels dropped to 71.83% but stayed above early-2025 targets, while TTF prices continued their soft decline.
At Sines, LNG bunker prices jumped USD 48/MT to USD 716/MT, decreasing the price gap with MGO LS to just USD 16/MT. LNG continues to hold a slight competitive advantage despite the reduced spread.
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) once again confirmed undervaluation across all major hubs Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston. Undervaluation deepened most notably in the MGO LS segment, particularly in Houston and Rotterdam. Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports showed no change from the previous week, suggesting persistent market softness.
Meanwhile, Accelleron’s latest analysis highlighted Asia-Pacific’s rapid progress in e-fuel development, driven by supportive government policies, renewable energy potential, and industrial capacity. However, the lack of strong demand-side incentives continues to limit large-scale maritime offtake, delaying full-scale commercialization.
The global bunker market closed Week 50 on a steady note, characterized by marginal declines, mixed spread movements, and consistent undervaluation across major ports. External energy trends, including stable European gas flows and narrowing LNG spreads, further contributed to the market’s subdued dynamics. With no strong signals pointing toward a major shift, bunker prices are expected to experience mixed but moderate fluctuations in the coming week, maintaining the prevailing stability in global fuel markets.
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Source: MABUX
