- Chinese Exports Continue to Support Emerging Market Trade.
- Q2 Mainlane Volumes Grow 4.9%, Following Strong Q1 Expansion.
- Asia-Europe and Transatlantic Routes Remain Healthy; Transpacific Volatile.
Recent analysis from Maritime Strategies International (MSI) reveals that the demand side of the container shipping industry is holding up better against tariffs than we initially thought. Chinese exporters are still actively shipping their surplus manufactured goods, especially to emerging markets, which has played a significant role in boosting trade in 2025, reports Marine Link.
Q3 Market Report Highlights
In its Q3 report titled Faltering Freight, MSI points out that global container trade kicked off the year on a strong note. After an estimated year-on-year growth of 4.9% in Q1, world container trade saw an approximate 4.4% increase in Q2. While MSI expects some industrial pullback in China over the next few years, this trend is currently helping to sustain global container trade.
Mainlane Trade Volumes Remain Healthy
In Q2 2025, mainlane container trade volumes were robust, and July data for Asia-Europe and Transatlantic routes remained strong. The Transpacific trade has experienced more fluctuations, but volumes were nearly 6% higher on a year-to-date basis through August. Overall, mainline headhaul volumes grew by 4.9% year-on-year in Q2, following a remarkable 9.5% increase in Q1, likely marking the strongest growth this segment will see for a while.
Non-Mainlane Trades Drive Growth
Non-mainline trades over long distances have really been fueling the growth of containerised trade lately, and this trend has carried on into the first half of 2025. The Transpacific route plays a significant role in MSI’s prediction of a decline in mainlane headhaul trade for 2026, with the slower growth between Asia and Europe also playing a part.
Forecast Revisions and Risks
MSI has revised up its projections for 2026, assuming greater resilience to tariffs, but notes that downside risks remain. Chinese export competitiveness continues to be a critical factor across both mainline and non-mainline trades.
“While exports from South-East Asia, as opposed to China, could account for a growing share of this surge in Far East exports, wider evidence from Chinese customs data does suggest that it is China’s export powerhouse that is having an outsized impact,” explains MSI Director Daniel Richards. He added: “Overall, MSI has made upward revisions to our forecast for key non-mainlane trades in 2025, but otherwise our forecasts are stable and we expect a more muted pace of expansion in 2026.”
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: Marine Link
