An analysis of global dry bulk cargo volume projections provides insights into the industry’s growth expectations, influenced by economic factors and specific cargo categories. The Bimco source.
- Global dry bulk cargo volume is projected to grow by 1.5% to 2.5% in 2023 and 1% to 2% in 2024, influenced by factors such as sanctions on Russian coal and increased iron ore and grain shipments.
- The IMF’s global economic growth forecast of 3% in 2023 and 2024, alongside inflation challenges and interest rate adjustments, sets the economic backdrop for these cargo volume projections.
- Specific cargo categories, including iron ore, coal, grains, and minor bulk shipments, have distinct growth expectations and are influenced by factors such as steel production, coal demand, and grain exports.
Growth Expectations
In our base-case scenario, we anticipate global dry bulk cargo volume to experience growth between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2023, followed by a slightly moderated increase ranging from 1% to 2% in 2024. These projections provide insights into the sector’s outlook and its response to various economic and regulatory factors.
Average Haul and Transit Efficiency
The study identifies a potential increase in average haul by 0.5% to 1.5% in 2023, driven by factors including sanctions on Russian coal and elevated iron ore and grain shipments from Brazil. The study highlights the influence of geopolitical dynamics and market forces on dry bulk transport efficiency.
Global Economic Landscape
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) global economic growth forecast of 3% in 2023 and 2024, influenced by inflation challenges and interest rate adjustments, sets the backdrop for dry bulk cargo volume projections. The report delves into the IMF’s outlook and its impact on the dry bulk shipping sector.
Specific Cargo Categories and Their Prospects
The study offers detailed insights into various cargo categories, including iron ore, coal, grains, and minor bulk shipments. Projections for each category, alongside factors such as steel production, coal demand, and grain exports, shed light on the diverse dynamics shaping the global dry bulk market.
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Source-bimco.org
