The dry bulk market displayed a steady but regionally uneven performance this week. While the Capesize sector experienced tightening tonnage and weather-related constraints, the Panamax and Supramax segments showed mixed trends influenced by shifting demand, regional imbalances, and forward sentiment indicators. Overall, the market holds a cautiously optimistic tone heading into December.
Capesize: Tonnage Tightens as Weather and Demand Support Rates
The Capesize market saw active enquiry levels, especially for C5 routes from miners and operators eyeing early December loadings. East Australia volumes remained flat compared to last week, while C3 demand from Brazil and West Africa shifted focus toward mid-December and even early January cargoes.
Ballasting tonnage tightened significantly for early and mid-December, with spot availability shrinking further due to adverse weather conditions across the Far East. By midweek, fixtures settled at mid-high USD 10 per tonne levels on C5, while C3 routes achieved mid-USD 24 levels for mid-December dates, reflecting firming market fundamentals.
Panamax & Supramax: Mixed Regional Performance with Forward Strength
The Panamax segment showed a steadier and slightly bullish tone. In the Atlantic, initial softness improved as North Atlantic tonnage cleared and new grain and coal requirements from the US Gulf and US East Coast supported December sentiment. However, ECSA weakened modestly into the mid-sixteens.
The Pacific basin remained softer, influenced by oversupply of tonnage and muted demand from Australia and North Pacific cargoes. Bid-offer spread widened, hinting at a near-term correction. Despite this, reduced coal contango, firmer spot pricing, and tightness in the South Atlantic hint at a possible year-end strengthening, with the P5TC expected to approach its yearly highs.
In the Supramax market, conditions varied by region. The US Gulf eased after earlier firmness, while the South Atlantic and Continent–Mediterranean held steady due to positional support. Asian activity was muted but maintained an underlying tone of stability. Handy markets mirrored these regional contrasts, with overall flat rate movement.
Despite regional volatility, the dry bulk market closed the week with signs of resilience. The Capesize sector benefitted from tightening tonnage and weather disruptions, Panamaxes showed forward-leaning optimism, and Supramaxes remained steady across several basins. With year-end demand gradually resurfacing and fundamentals balancing out, the market appears poised for a stable to slightly stronger trajectory heading into December.
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Source: Fearnleys
