Shell, in its latest LNG Outlook published on their website, says Global LNG trade increased to 360 million tonnes in 2020 despite the unprecedented volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prediction on LNG demand
Global LNG trade increased to 360 million tonnes in 2020 despite the unprecedented volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, says oil major Shell in its latest LNG Outlook.
The report also predicts that global LNG demand is expected to reach 700 million tonnes by 2040.
Key trends in 2020
The Shell LNG Outlook, highlighting key trends in 2020, notes that the increase in volume reflects the resilience and flexibility of the global LNG market in 2020, a year which saw losses to global GDP of several trillion dollars as economies struggled to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Demand in 2019 stood at 358 million tonnes.
Key findings
- Gas and LNG have a key role to play in a decarbonising world:
- Three of the ten highest CO₂ emitting countries announce net-zero emissions (NZE) targets during 2020
- Gas and LNG can play a key role in decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors
- Nearly half of gas demand growth in the next 20 years expected to come from Asia
2. LNG shows its resilience and flexibility in 2020:
- LNG demand continued to grow despite the global pandemic and ensuing economic crisis
- Global LNG prices hit a record low before rebounding to hit a record high in January 2021
- New LNG supply investment decisions ground to a halt
3. Complementary spot and term contract structures and cleaner pathways to drive LNG growth:
- Supply-demand gap estimated to emerge in the middle of the current decade
- Current industry structure supports the changing needs of buyers
- Net-zero emissions targets will need cleaner and innovative energy solutions.
Global LNG prices
According to the report, global LNG prices hit a record low early in the year but ended the 12-month period at a six-year high, as demand in parts of Asia recovered and winter buying increased against tightened supply.
LNG the flexible energy
Maarten Wetselaar, Integrated Gas, Renewables and Energy Solutions Director at Shell said:
Resilience and ability to power
LNG provided flexible energy which the world needed during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating its resilience and ability to power people’s lives in these unprecedented times.
Net-zero emissions
Around the world countries and companies, including Shell, are adopting net-zero emissions targets and seeking to create lower-carbon energy systems.
Helping power progress towards targets
As the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, natural gas and LNG have a central role to play in delivering the energy the world needs and helping power progress towards these targets.
Natural gas emits 45%-55% fewer greenhouse gas emissions and less than one-tenth of the air pollutants than coal when used to generate electricity, the report notes.
Demand rebounds in Asia
China and India led the recovery in demand for LNG following the outbreak of the pandemic.
China increased its LNG imports by 7 million tonnes to 67 million tonnes, an 11% increase for the year.
LNG demand drive
China carbon neutral by 2060
China’s announcement of a target to become carbon neutral by 2060 is expected to continue driving up its LNG demand through the key role gas can play in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors, namely buildings, heavy industry, shipping and heavy-duty road transport.
India’s increased LNG imports
India increased imports by 11% in 2020 as it took advantage of lower-priced LNG to supplement its domestic gas production.
Japan and South Korea LNG imports
Two other major Asian LNG-importing countries – Japan and South Korea – also announced net-zero emissions targets in 2020. To meet its net-zero target, South Korea aims to switch 24 coal-fired power plants to cleaner-burning LNG by 2034.
Europe LNG demand
Demand in Europe, alongside flexible US supply, helped to balance the global LNG market in the first half of 2020. However, supply outages in other basins, structural constraints and extreme weather later in the year resulted in higher prices.
LNG market to 2040
Overall, global LNG demand is estimated to hit 700 million tonnes by 2040. Asia is expected to drive nearly 75% of this growth as domestic gas production declines and LNG substitutes higher emission energy sources, tackling air quality concerns and meeting emissions targets.
Demand-supply gap
As demand grows, a supply-demand gap is expected to open in the middle of the current decade with less new production coming on-stream than previously projected.
Just 3 million tonnes in new LNG production capacity was announced in 2020, down from an expected 60 million tonnes.
According to estimates, more than half of future LNG demand will come from countries with net-zero emissions targets.
Need to innovate at every stage
The LNG industry will need to innovate at every stage of the value chain to lower emissions and play a key role in powering hard-to-abate sectors.
Shell LNG Outlook coincides with the release of a study by SEA LNG coalition, which found that, for every 10% of bio-LNG dropped in and blended with LNG as a marine fuel, a vessel can achieve two extra years’ compliance with the Annual Efficiency Ratio (AER) curve used to secure preferable funding under the Poseidon Principles.
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Source: Shell
