At the close of the 21st week of 2025 (May 13-19), global bunker indices, as reported by MABUX, experienced a moderate downturn.
Global Scrubber Spread
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread, which represents the price difference between 380 HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil) and VLSFO (Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil), experienced a slight decrease of $0.97, moving from $74.22 last week to $73.25. Conversely, the average weekly value of this index showed a rise of $2.09.
Looking at specific ports:
- Rotterdam: The SS Spread increased by $4.00, reaching $46.00 from $42.00 the previous week. The average weekly value in Rotterdam also rose by $5.33.
- Singapore: The 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential narrowed by $4.00, declining from $80.00 last week to $76.00. The average weekly value in Singapore also dropped by $4.83.
Overall, there continues to be no clear trend in the dynamics of global and port-specific SS Spread indices, with values still fluctuating. Importantly, all indices remain well below the $100.00 breakeven threshold. This sustained condition continues to favor the higher profitability of using conventional VLSFO over the combination of 380 HSFO and a scrubber.
The EU is projected to spend approximately €10 billion more this year to refill its gas storage facilities. This significant increase in costs is attributed to a colder-than-average winter in 2024–25, which led to a substantial depletion of the region’s natural gas reserves, more so than during the preceding two milder winters. By the end of the last winter season, storage levels had dropped to nearly 30%, marking the steepest decline in recent years. To restore storage to comfortable levels, the EU will need to intensify its purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
As of May 20, European regional gas storage facilities were 44.91% full. This represents an increase of 1.78% from the previous week, but a notable decrease of 26.42% compared to the beginning of the year (when they were 71.33% full). The process of refilling storage is gradually continuing. By the end of the 21st week, the European gas benchmark TTF (Title Transfer Facility) maintained its moderate upward trend, rising by 1.235 euros/MWh to reach 36.979 euros/MWh, up from 35.744 euros/MWh the previous week.
Market Differential Index
At the close of the 21st week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which compares actual market bunker prices (MBP) against MABUX’s Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), revealed the following trends across the 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO LS fuel segments in key global bunker hubs:
380 HSFO Segment:
- Rotterdam and Singapore remained in an overvalued state. Rotterdam’s weekly average MDI was unchanged, while Singapore’s increased by 3 points. Notably, Rotterdam continued to exhibit a near 100% correlation between its MBP and DBP.
- Fujairah and Houston continued to be undervalued. Their average MDI values both increased by 5 points.
VLSFO Segment:
- Singapore was the sole overvalued port in this segment, with its average MDI decreasing by 4 points. Singapore is also approaching a full (100%) MBP/DBP correlation.
- Rotterdam, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued. Rotterdam’s MDI dropped by 7 points, Houston’s by 1 point, while Fujairah’s increased by 2 points. Rotterdam is also nearing a full (100%) MBP/DBP correlation.
MGO LS Segment:
- Rotterdam continued to be the only overvalued port, with its weekly average MDI rising by 2 points. Rotterdam maintained its close proximity to a 100% MBP/DBP correlation.
- Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston were undervalued. Their MDIs saw increases of 4 points in Singapore, a significant 17 points in Fujairah, and 10 points in Houston.
Overall, the week saw no changes in the established overvaluation/undervaluation structure across the monitored ports and fuel segments. MABUX anticipates no significant adjustments to this balance in the upcoming week.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
