Global seaborne trade, which surged in the first half of 2025 due to frontloaded imports and strong demand for AI-related goods, is now showing signs of slowing. The World Trade Organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer points toward a moderation in global merchandise trade as the year enters its final quarter. While growth remains above trend, the momentum that powered early-year gains appears to be easing.
WTO Barometer Signals Slower but Steady Growth
The WTO’s composite leading indicator fell from 102.2 in June to 101.8 in September, indicating that although trade is still expanding, the pace has softened. The first half of 2025 saw an impressive 4.9% year-on-year increase in merchandise volumes, driven by companies importing early to avoid expected tariff hikes and by the rising demand for AI-related products.
Key transport indicators reflect this cooling trend:
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Air freight index dropped to 102.7
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Container shipping index fell to 101.7
This decline highlights a slowdown in global goods movement. The agricultural raw materials index remained the weakest performer at 98.0, staying in contraction territory since the start of the year. In contrast, automotive products (103.0) and electronic components (102.0) remained stable.
Despite these declines, the new export orders index jumped to 102.3, suggesting resilience and potential recovery in export activity.
Trade Outlook Softens Amid Policy Uncertainty
While early-year performance exceeded expectations, the WTO has revised its full-year 2025 outlook downward to 2.4% growth, citing rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty. These factors are expected to dampen momentum in the second half of the year.
Even so, the WTO notes significant upside potential, particularly if strong global demand for AI-related products continues. This sector was a major driver of the first half’s exceptional performance and could once again support trade volumes in the months ahead.
The Goods Trade Barometer, which forecasts trade developments two to three months in advance, remains above its baseline of 100 indicating that global trade is still expanding, just at a slower pace.
Although global seaborne trade is cooling following an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, the WTO’s indicators show that growth remains above trend. With transportation indices softening and tariff uncertainties looming, the remainder of the year is expected to see more moderate expansion. However, resilience in export orders and continued demand for technology-driven products may help sustain trade momentum heading into 2026.
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Source: gCaptain
