- Goldman Sachs forecasts a multi-phase upcycle in global shipbuilding lasting until 2032, fueled by decarbonization, fleet renewal, and trade growth.
- Chinese shipyards are expected to dominate capacity expansion, leveraging efficiency and cost advantages despite temporary constraints.
- New ship orders are projected to reach 441 million compensated gross tons (CGT) valued at $1.2 trillion, with decarbonization and replacement demand extending growth momentum.
A Multi-Phase Upward Cycle
The global shipbuilding industry is entering a long-term growth cycle, according to a Goldman Sachs report released on September 2. Analysts expect the industry to experience a “multi-phase, long-term upward cycle” that could stretch through 2032, bringing in new orders worth an estimated $1.2 trillion. This expansion will be shaped by stricter environmental regulations, the renewal of aging fleets, and steady global trade growth.
Key Drivers of Demand
Decarbonization and fleet renewal are identified as the main forces behind the surge in orders. From 2025 to 2032, analysts project that global newbuild demand will reach 441 million CGT. Fleet replacement needs are expected to contribute 48% of orders, followed by decarbonization requirements at 26% and trade growth at 26%.
Environmental regulations will become increasingly decisive, with operating costs of traditional fuel vessels projected to surpass those of LNG- and methanol-powered ships by 2035. To remain compliant, the share of alternative fuel vessels must climb to 50% by that year. Fleet renewal, however, is the most pressing driver, as vessels delivered during the 2009–2012 shipbuilding boom approach the 20-year mark by 2029, prompting large-scale replacement across tankers, bulk carriers, and gas carriers.
Pricing and Market Dynamics
Goldman Sachs anticipates that new ship prices will remain elevated through 2028, with only a modest 12% correction expected after the 2024 peak. This stability reflects disciplined production levels and robust demand. Delivery volumes are projected to grow from 41 million CGT in 2024 to 52 million CGT by 2027, a 27% increase, although the compound annual growth rate for global shipyards will remain modest at around 2%.
China’s Expanding Role
The report emphasizes that most of this capacity growth will come from China. Through the expansion of new shipyards and the reactivation of older facilities, China’s share of global shipbuilding continues to rise. Its ability to combine efficient construction with cost advantages positions Chinese yards as the primary beneficiaries of the coming upturn.
Although tight capacity is causing temporary strain—current backlogs extend to 3.7 years compared to about 3 years in South Korea and Japan—Chinese shipyards are still capturing the majority of new business. After dipping earlier in 2025, their market share rebounded strongly to 69% of global new orders in June and July, up from 49% over the prior five months.
Opportunities and Challenges Ahead
The report also evaluates potential risks, including the impact of higher U.S. port service fees for Chinese-built ships. The analysis concludes that the effect will be limited, as Chinese vessels account for only 4% of fleets registered in U.S. ports, and U.S. trade represents just 12% of global maritime volumes. Shipowners, therefore, have ample flexibility to deploy Chinese-built vessels elsewhere.
While production constraints may temporarily divert orders to other shipbuilding nations, Goldman Sachs sees this as a longer-term opportunity for Chinese shipyards. As additional capacity comes online and order backlogs are cleared, China’s price competitiveness will stand out more clearly, strengthening its dominance in the global shipbuilding market through the 2030s.
Did you subscribe to our daily Newsletter?
It’s Free Click here to Subscribe!
Source: moomoo
