A new sector outlook highlights a challenging year ahead for global shipping in 2026. Geopolitical tensions, shifting policy landscapes, and softer GDP growth across major economies are shaping a more fragile operating environment. Financial market volatility also poses downside risks as the sector navigates a period of uncertainty.
Geopolitical and Trade Pressures Intensify
One key event risk remains the possibility of Red Sea transits resuming. If this happens, tonne-mile demand could fall, creating ripple effects across several segments. Meanwhile, tariff disputes continue to cloud expectations. Protectionist measures have already moderated volume growth for container trades in 2025 and 2026. Over the medium term, these measures may reshape trade patterns and reduce demand for goods that depend on premium margins. Even so, some new routes could strengthen as flows adjust.
Container Shipping Faces a Weaker Profit Cycle
The outlook for the boxship market points to softer performance in 2026. Freight rates continue to trend lower as supply growth outpaces demand. This imbalance is expected to reduce profitability, especially for operators relying heavily on spot markets. Despite recent attempts to stabilise rates, capacity additions continue to pressure earnings.
Tanker and Bulk Segments Move in Different Directions
Crude tankers hold a more favourable position. End-market demand and tonne-mile growth continue to support the segment. Conversely, bulk carriers are heading into the new year with weak yet stable fundamentals. Markets such as LNG shipping and car carriers remain steady, with no major shifts anticipated.
Fleet Growth Continues While Scrappage Stays Low
Orderbooks across major segments have expanded. However, vessel scrappage remains limited, which increases net capacity. This trend adds to the structural imbalance already influencing freight markets.
Environmental Rules Add Cost Pressure
The IMO’s Net Zero framework, still pending final approval, is expected to elevate cost structures over the medium term. How these costs will be absorbed or passed through to customers remains unclear. This uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to long-term planning for operators.
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Source: Fitch Ratings
