Global Shipping Update on Cancelled Sailings and Freight Rate Trends

• 12% of scheduled sailings on East-West trade lanes are cancelled between December 30, 2024, and February 2, 2025.
• Transpacific Eastbound leads cancellations at 56%, followed by Transatlantic Westbound (23%) and Asia-North Europe & Med routes (21%).
• Freight rates have risen, with Drewry’s WCI Composite Index increasing 3% week-on-week to $3,905 per 40ft container as of January 2, 2025.
• Key factors include Lunar New Year demand, geopolitical disruptions, and changes in carrier alliances.
• Elevated rates and delays are expected to persist beyond January.

Weekly Overview – Cancelled Sailings Snapshot

According to Drewry, the East-West trade lanes — including Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe & Mediterranean routes — have seen a 12% cancellation rate between December 30, 2024, and February 2, 2025. Of the 725 scheduled sailings, 87 have been cancelled. Transpacific Eastbound accounts for the majority at 56%, followed by Transatlantic Westbound (23%) and Asia-North Europe & Med routes (21%).

Alliance Cancellations and Non-Alliance Activity

THE Alliance and OCEAN Alliance each plan to cancel 22 sailings over the next five weeks, while the 2M Alliance has announced 15 cancellations. Non-Alliance services also contribute significantly, with 28 blank sailings reported during the same period. A decline in schedule reliability is anticipated, with approximately 12% of vessels expected to miss their scheduled departures.

Market Trends – Freight Rates and Demand Dynamics

Drewry’s WCI Composite Index recorded a 3% week-on-week rise to $3,905 per 40ft container on January 2, 2025. Transpacific rates saw a notable 7% increase, while rates for Transatlantic and Asia-Europe/Med routes remained stable. This increase is driven by heightened demand leading up to the Lunar New Year on January 29, alongside broader challenges such as Red Sea Crisis disruptions and pre-emptive shipping in response to potential tariff hikes.

Contributing Factors to Supply-Demand Imbalance

Several factors, including Lunar New Year demand surges, potential labor strikes at key ports, ongoing Red Sea disruptions, and changes in carrier alliances, have exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance. These factors have enabled carriers to raise spot rates significantly, which are expected to remain high through January.

Outlook – Continued Rate Volatility and Cargo Delays

While freight rates may ease after the Lunar New Year, the ongoing disruptions, particularly from Red Sea diversions, are likely to sustain elevated costs. Currently, freight rates on major East-West trade lanes are averaging 134% higher than the previous year. Shippers and beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) should anticipate extended delays and sustained rate volatility, potentially impacting their supply chain operations in the coming months.