Global trade is projected to grow about 7% this year, adding $2.2 trillion and marking a new all-time high. East Asia, Africa and South–South trade continue to power the expansion, while manufacturing—especially electronics—remains the primary engine of growth. Energy and automotive flows, however, are trailing behind.
Growth continues but at a slower pace
UNCTAD data show that between July and September, global trade rose 2.5% from the previous quarter. Goods increased nearly 2%, and services grew 4%. Projections for the final quarter indicate slower gains, with goods expected to rise 0.5% and services 2%. If these trends hold, goods will add roughly $1.5 trillion to annual totals, while services contribute around $750 billion.
A notable shift is emerging in price trends. After two quarters of higher trade values driven partly by rising goods prices, traded-goods prices are expected to decline. This means late-2025 growth stems mainly from higher shipment volumes rather than inflationary effects, reflecting steady demand as price pressures ease.
East Asia, Africa and South–South networks lead expansion
East Asia recorded 9% export growth over the past year, boosted by a 10% rise in intra-regional trade. Africa also posted strong results, with imports up 10% and exports 6%. South–South trade expanded around 8%, underscoring deepening links among developing economies.
China and the Republic of Korea were major contributors in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa supported gains in their respective regions. India and China also delivered some of the strongest growth in services exports.
Electronics drive manufacturing while autos soften
Manufacturing expanded 10% over the year, with electronics rising 14% on the back of AI-related demand. Agriculture also advanced sharply in the third quarter, with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports both up 11%.
Automotive trade declined 4%, while fossil-fuel shipments contracted as prices fell. LNG, critical minerals and several renewable-energy components saw mixed quarterly results, but electronics remained the standout performer.
Fragmentation trends strengthen again
Trade in 2025 outpaced global economic growth and reversed the stagnation seen in 2023–2024. Even so, imbalances remain elevated. Friendshoring and nearshoring gained traction once more, reshaping trade flows toward politically aligned or geographically closer partners. Concentration levels in global trade also increased compared with the 2021 baseline.
Outlook turns cautious for 2026
UNCTAD notes that slower global activity, rising debt, higher trade costs and persistent uncertainty are likely to weigh on next year’s performance, signalling a more restrained trade environment ahead.
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Source: UN Trade and Development
