Global Vessel Cascading Enters A New Phase As Secondary Trade Lanes Absorb Excess Capacity

The latest Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight (Issue 744) reveals a significant shift in global container vessel deployment patterns. An analysis of more than 16,000 vessel transfers across 2024 and 2025 shows that the well-known “Cascading Effect” has entered a new phase in the second half of 2025 (2025-2H). While earlier capacity displacements were driven by crisis management on main East–West routes, excess tonnage is now being pushed into secondary and peripheral trade lanes, signalling a structural change in the global shipping network.

From Core Routes to Saturation: The Changing Role of Asia–Mediterranean

In 2024, the Asia–Mediterranean trade lane played a key role in absorbing surplus capacity from Asia–North Europe, largely due to rerouting and congestion linked to the Red Sea crisis. However, Sea-Intelligence data now shows that this trade lane has reached saturation.
During 2025-2H, Asia–Mediterranean shifted from being a net receiver of tonnage to an active exporter of capacity, cascading vessels onward to other trade lanes. This reversal highlights that primary East–West corridors can no longer absorb additional tonnage, forcing carriers to redistribute vessels further down the network.

Secondary Trade Lanes Emerge as Major Capacity Absorbers

As capacity flows outward, secondary trade lanes are becoming the main recipients of cascaded tonnage. The Mediterranean–North America East Coast trade lane emerged as the largest net gainer in 2025-2H, absorbing a net +127,686 TEU. This increase was largely driven by transfers from Asia–Mediterranean, including 11 vessels in the 14,000–15,000 TEU range.

Meanwhile, the Asia–East Coast South America trade lane became the second-largest net absorber, gaining +112,998 TEU, mainly from mid-sized vessels of 8,000–14,000 TEU. Crucially, 97% of the vessels redeployed to this route did not return to their original trade lanes, indicating a long-term structural shift rather than a temporary adjustment.

The cascading of vessel capacity in 2025-2H marks a decisive transition in global container shipping dynamics. What began as a crisis-driven redistribution linked to the Red Sea has evolved into a permanent saturation of secondary trade lanes. With excess capacity now embedded in peripheral routes, carriers face a structurally altered network where traditional deployment patterns may no longer apply. This new phase of cascading underscores the long-term consequences of recent disruptions and signals continued pressure on freight markets beyond the main East–West corridors.