- Sanctioned tankers rise to 886, while the grey fleet reaches 1,140 ships.
- Aframaxes dominate Russian oil; older VLCCs and Suezmaxes gain value.
- Strong Russian and Iranian supply keeps grey fleet demand high.
Western sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and EU might be driving the growth of the grey tanker fleet. In 2025, approximately 30 ships each month will transition from regular trading to Russian or Iranian operations, as some buyers of sanctioned oil are opting for non-sanctioned vessels. The grey fleet, characterised by ships involved in illicit trading, some of which may be under sanctions, now accounts for 18.2% of the global oil tanker tonnage, reports BRS.
Surge in Sanctioned and Grey Vessels
According to BRS data, the number of sanctioned tankers has skyrocketed to 886 from just 191 a year ago, while the grey fleet has grown to 1,140 ships with a deadweight tonnage of 3,000 and above.
Price Cap Impact
The joint price cap set by the EU and UK on Russian crude is set to drop from $60 per barrel to $47.60 per barrel in September. This significant discount compared to market prices will make it less feasible for mainstream owners to transport Russian cargoes under the cap, nudging more operators toward the grey fleet.
Tanker Market Shifts
Aframaxes continue to be the backbone of Russian crude trade, but older VLCCs and Suezmaxes could see an increase in value if US pressure on Iran escalates. With Russian and Iranian supply expected to remain robust through 2025, the demand for grey fleet vessels is likely to stay strong.
Demolition Curbed by Illicit Trade
The rise of the grey fleet has notably decreased tanker demolitions. Many vessels over 15 years old are being sold for illicit trading rather than being scrapped, which extends the lifespan of these older, higher-risk units and raises both operational and environmental concerns. BRS data indicates that 15 grey fleet tankers were demolished in 2024–25, including 8 sanctioned vessels, underscoring that some breaker yards have taken the risk of violating regulations.
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Source: BRS
