- Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are expected to continue into 2025 and beyond.
- The conflict in Gaza and Lebanon influences the intensity and expansion of Houthi maritime attacks.
- High-risk shipping area remains, with the potential for Houthi attacks expanding to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
2024 due to the Houthi attacks is expected to remain until 2025 and beyond. The ongoing Houthi attacks, particularly targeting shipping lanes, are predicted to persist well into 2025, impacting maritime security, reports the Washington Institute.
Conflict Link to Gaza and Lebanon
The precise trends will depend on the trajectories of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, since the Houthis have linked their maritime campaign to both.
The Houthis have connected their maritime activities to broader conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, suggesting that developments in those areas will influence future attack trends.
September and October See Decline in Attacks
Attacks in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden dropped in September and October compared to previous months. The region remains a very high-risk area for shipping.
Although there has been a slight reduction in attacks recently, the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden continue to pose significant risks for shipping.
Potential for Expanded Houthi Activities
The Houthis even can expand their activities, particularly drone attacks, to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
The Houthis can escalate their operations, including drone strikes. This extended their reach to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, heightening risks in a larger area.
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Source: Washington Institute
