In the wake of new U.S. tariffs on India, China has become a primary recipient of Russian crude, picking up the slack from a decline in India’s imports.
Shifts in Crude Shipments to India and China
US President Donald Trump’s decision to double import tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, in response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, has directly impacted crude flow. In the four-week period leading up to August 31, the amount of Russian crude on tankers bound for India fell by approximately one-third from its peak in March, staying below 1.3 million barrels per day.
In contrast, Russian crude shipments to China moved in the opposite direction, reaching a five-month high of 1.28 million barrels per day. This pivot highlights China’s increasing role as a key consumer of Russian energy, a trend further solidified by the recent signing of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline agreement.
Overall Russian Export Trends
Despite the turbulence in its export destinations, Russia’s overall weekly crude shipments rebounded, jumping by 770,000 barrels a day to a seven-week high of 3.49 million barrels. On a four-week average, seaborne cargoes averaged 3.15 million barrels per day. This increase was driven by a resumption of shipments from the Sakhalin 2 project and the partial restoration of flows from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, which was previously affected by a drone attack.
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks
Ukraine’s ongoing drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have also contributed to the export situation by potentially making more crude available for foreign markets. Last month alone, attacks forced more than 13% of Russia’s active refinery capacity offline. This, combined with sanctions-related delays in acquiring new equipment, has slowed down refinery operations and diverted more crude toward export. An attack on the Unecha pumping station, for example, forced crude to be diverted to other ports, such as Primorsk and Novorossiysk.
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Source: gCaptain
