International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its 2024 World Energy Outlook, examining the impact of maritime chokepoint routes on global trade, and the transition to low-emissions fuels, reports Safety4sea.
Key maritime trade routes and their importance
According to IEA, key maritime trade routes remain vital to the well-being of global oil and gas markets. This includes the safe passage of ships through passages such as the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Malacca is particularly important to oil and gas trade and is set to become even more so in the future, with oil volumes increasing from 24 mb/d today (55% of global oil trade) to 28 mb/d in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), and LNG flows increasing from 70 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2023 (12% of global LNG trade) to 140 bcm in 2050.
Decarbonisation targets in shipping
In shipping, International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets for decarbonisation play a central part in ammonia and hydrogen taking a 4% share of shipping energy demand by 2030 in the APS, with low-emissions methanol accounting for another 8% and bioenergy for a further 10%.
Growth of low-emissions fuel consumption
Low-emissions fuel consumption in the transport sector is set to rise by 30% in 2030 and more than double by 2050 from current levels in the STEPS. Bioenergy plays a significant role in this, particularly in shipping and aviation.
Future use of hydrogen and ammonia
Most of the hydrogen is used for road transport, and all of the ammonia is used in shipping. While low-emissions fuels are crucial to decarbonising challenging sectors like aviation and shipping, energy efficiency improvements remain vital, resulting in 2,100 PJ of avoided demand by 2030 in the STEPS and 2,600 PJ in the APS in non-road transport sub-sectors, mostly thanks to new and more efficient stock replacing older models.
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Source: Safety4sea
