According to a report from Sea-Intelligence, container vessel capacity has become increasingly unstable over the past decade, particularly on the Asia-North Europe trade route. The report highlights the growing need for better contingency planning due to these fluctuations, especially during seasonal events like Chinese New Year and Golden Week.
Rising Volatility on Asia-North Europe Trade
The Asia-North Europe trade route has experienced a significant increase in capacity volatility, rising from a pre-pandemic level of around 10% to almost three times that amount today. This instability is making it more challenging for shippers to rely on consistent weekly capacity, requiring better contingency strategies.
Comparative Stability in Transpacific Trades
Transpacific trades, particularly Asia-North America West Coast, have been relatively more stable, with weekly capacity fluctuations showing a lower standard deviation than Asia-North Europe. This suggests more reliability in these routes for shippers.
Impact on Global Shipping Trends
The report found that over a 52-week period, Asia-North Europe had a much higher standard deviation of nearly 90,000 TEU per week, compared to 50,000 TEU for Transpacific trades and 34,000 TEU for Asia-Mediterranean. This rising volatility on certain trade routes is forcing shipping companies to reevaluate their capacity management strategies to mitigate potential disruptions.
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Source: Sea-Intelligence
