According to Safety4Sea, global soybean flows are changing and reshaping dry bulk activity. Soybeans continue to drive Kamsarmax demand on the Brazil–China and US–China routes. Yet trade tensions, strong South American harvests and high Chinese stockpiles are shifting tonne-mile patterns.
Trade Patterns Move Away from the US
Global consumption is rising, but the location of demand matters more for shipowners. The US reduced soybean plantings after repeated trade shocks. Brazil increased acreage and strengthened its position as China’s main supplier.
China recently agreed to buy 12 Mt of US soybeans in late 2025 and about 25 Mt a year after that. Intermodal notes that this is a recovery, not a full return to pre-trade war levels. Because of this gap, US exporters are expanding into new markets. More beans and soymeal now flow to Mexico, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Corn exports are rising too.
These shifts keep Panamax and Supramax employment steady. However, many voyages are shorter than the classic US Gulf–China run, which cuts tonne-mile demand. Brazil and Argentina have captured the long-haul advantage. Brazil’s exports reached record levels, with China taking most of them. Argentina pushed extra cargoes to China after easing export taxes.
China Manages Heavy Stockpiles
Months of strong buying from South America lifted China’s port stocks to about 10.3 Mt. Crushers hold around 7.5 Mt, the highest level since 2017. Traders estimate that state reserves may sit near 45 Mt. These volumes cover several months of early-year demand.
Soymeal prices dropped and crushers face negative margins. As a result, buyers have little reason to add more cargo now. China may reduce import activity while industries use existing stocks. If US shipments arrive later, they could slow Brazil’s export pace.
Impact on Vessel Deployment
Intermodal highlights two effects for the months ahead. First, high stocks may push part of the US purchase program into early 2026. This shift would overlap with Brazil’s post-harvest season and change the usual arrival rhythm into China.
Second, more US beans may move to smaller and price-sensitive buyers across Asia, Africa and the Middle East. These flows break into smaller parcels, opening more employment for Supramax and Handy vessels but on shorter distances.
A More Distributed Trade Map
USDA projections show room for higher Chinese imports in 2026 if feed demand rises. Intermodal remains cautious. China’s large stocks and Brazil’s dominant role suggest a more spread-out soybean trade landscape. This supports grain and oilseed volumes across vessel sizes, but with more variation in routes and less predictability than a decade ago.
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Source: Safety4Sea
