The recent escalation in U.S.–China trade hostilities is reverberating through global shipping, driving up costs for vessels tied to U.S. interests and accelerating the fragmentation of trade networks.
Escalation Through Port Fees
Beijing’s announcement of retaliatory special port fees on U.S.-linked vessels has added fresh turmoil to global maritime trade. These levies largely mirror Washington’s own recent fees imposed on Chinese vessels but with one key difference: China targets a broader set of shipping assets, not just U.S.-flagged vessels, including those owned or managed by entities with at least 25% American ownership.
While U.S. measures offer exemptions for certain vessel sizes or types, such as LNG and vehicle carriers, to protect domestic interests, China’s rules appear more sweeping. Even so, some Chinese-built ships and those ballasting to Chinese repair yards may be exempted, though the full scope of exemptions remains unclear.
Financial Burden: From Deterrent to Exclusion
The financial impact of these new port fees is steep. A very large crude carrier could incur around six million dollars per port call, escalating to seventeen million by 2028 under current exchange trends. A Capesize bulk carrier could face roughly three million initially, rising to eight million within the same period. These sums make port calls to China increasingly uneconomical for U.S.-linked tonnage, effectively excluding many vessels from participating in key trade flows.
Markets Move — Freight Tightens
The shipping market responded immediately, with forward freight agreements and spot charter rates surging, particularly among larger vessel segments. Time charter equivalent earnings for VLCCs and Capesizes jumped by nearly twenty percent as expectations grew that access to Chinese ports would tighten. Many U.S.-linked vessels may begin rerouting away from China, shifting more capacity toward non-U.S. lines and further constricting tonnage availability for Chinese routes.
Strategic Decoupling and Emerging Corridors
The broader picture reflects an accelerating strategic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies. China continues to deepen trade ties beyond the U.S. through initiatives like the Belt and Road, expanding connections with South America, the Middle East, and Canada. Meanwhile, the U.S. is redirecting more of its exports toward India, Southeast Asia, and Europe as it seeks new trade partners and routes.
This ongoing realignment could permanently reshape global trade corridors, creating alternative pathways that bypass the constraints imposed by U.S.–China tensions.
Much depends on how China enforces its 25% ownership rule, as its interpretation will determine the scope of disruption across the maritime sector. Exemption clauses, such as those for Chinese-built vessels, may ease the impact but remain unclear. The persistence of elevated freight rates will hinge on whether these tensions lead to lasting changes in vessel deployment and international trade routes.
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Source: Safety4sea
