Is Neglecting The Fossil Fuels The Right Energy Transition?

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  • Increase in prices have pushed forth an energy-saving behaviour among the power consumers.
  • DNV is looking forward to catalyzing the green shipping corridors and hydrogen ecosystems as an independent provider of technical support.
  • Deglobalisation Has no effect on the ongoing energy transition happening currently.

The current turbulence in energy markets is not insignificant. However, Europe will accelerate its transition to a renewable-dominated power system, but higher energy prices may deter investment in clean energy elsewhere.

Supply chain disruptions

Over time, these two effects tend to cancel each other out. In the short term, supply chain disruptions will persist, delaying the global EV ‘milestone’ (when the EV share of new vehicle sales exceeds 50%) by one year in our forecast — to 2033.

Increase in Prices

However, there are compensatory developments in the form of high prices encouraging energy-saving behaviour among power consumers. We also forecast a 7% reduction in annual passenger trips due to pandemic-related changes in work habits in aviation.

Rapid electrification

“This year, our forecast sees non-fossil energy nudge slightly above 50% of the global energy mix by 2050. The principal underlying dynamic is rapid electrification, with supply climbing from 27 PWh/yr now to 62 PWh/yr in 2050.”

“We detail how this leads to enormous energy- efficiency gains in power generation and end-use,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO, DNV

Climate change

“In theory, that should provide policymakers with confidence to accelerate the transition. Bold and brave policy choices are critical in the face of climate change.”

Energy transition

“This year, for the first time, we include our ‘Pathway to Net Zero’ alongside our ‘best estimate’ forecast for the energy transition. Put another way, we compare a forecast that we think will unfold with a pathway that we hope the world will embrace.”

Carbon capture

“Even under a net zero pathway we think it infeasible for the world to completely discontinue fossil-fuel use, which is why you will find a 13% fossil share in the energy mix in our Pathway to Net Zero in 2050.” 

That overshoot in fossil use will require huge expenditure on carbon capture and removal efforts in the 2040s – running to USD 1 trillion per year.”

Deglobalization

“Deglobalization is much talked about. However, the energy transition is likely to see unprecedented regional and cross-industry cooperation — for example within hydrogen ecosystems or the creation of green shipping corridors. DNV will, as an independent provider of technical expertise, strive to catalyze such cooperation wherever we can,” exclaimed Remi.

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Source: DNV

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