With the recent lull in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, major shipping players including Maersk have hinted that a return to the Suez route may be closer than expected. While optimism grows, maritime security specialists caution that the situation remains fragile and that rushing back could expose vessels and crews to significant risk. On the Lloyd’s List Podcast, industry experts weigh in on whether the Red Sea is truly safe enough for shipping to resume.
A Temporary Calm: Is the Risk Really Reduced?
More than two years have passed since the hijacking of Galaxy Leader, an incident that marked the beginning of a series of targeted attacks on international shipping by the Houthis. Over this period, multiple vessels have been sunk and several seafarers have tragically lost their lives.
Recent weeks have seen a notable drop in attacks, with no new incidents since Eternity C. in July a change that coincides with the Hamas–Israel ceasefire. This calm has encouraged some carriers to consider returning to the Red Sea. Maersk recently stated that it would “take steps” toward reinstating Suez transits “as soon as conditions allow.”
However, security experts on the podcast including Ian Ralby of IR Consilium and Jakob Larsen of BIMCO warn that a temporary pause does not equate to long-term safety. The Houthis remain capable, unpredictable, and politically motivated, meaning risks could re-emerge at any moment.
Strategic, Operational, and Human Risks Still Loom Large
Even with reduced activity, returning too early could be dangerous. Experts emphasize that the Houthis’ motivations have not disappeared, and their ability to strike vessels remains intact. A fragile ceasefire between other regional actors does not guarantee long-term safety for ships transiting the Red Sea corridor.
Operationally, carriers also face strategic challenges:
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Insurance costs may remain high until consistent safety is proven.
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Crew welfare remains a primary concern, as seafarers have been the most exposed during the conflict.
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Disruption risk persists one renewed attack could destabilize global trade routes again.
Bridget Diakun of Lloyd’s List highlights that any decision to return must consider not only geopolitical signals but also the operational and human consequences of miscalculating the threat.
While some shipping companies are hopeful about resuming Red Sea transits, maritime security experts advise caution. The current calm is encouraging but far from conclusive. Until there is clear, sustained evidence of long-term stability not just a brief pause in attacks a return could expose global shipping to renewed danger. For now, the safest route remains the longer, costlier passage around the Cape of Good Hope, even as the industry waits for better assurances before charting a way back through the Red Sea.
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Source: Lloyd’s List
