Japan continues to face a deepening demographic crisis as new government data reveals the number of births in 2024 hit a record low, raising significant fears about the nation’s shrinking population, reports the Guardian.
Demographic Challenges
In 2024, the number of births to Japanese nationals reached 686,061, marking a 5.7% decline from the previous year. This is the lowest number since statistics began in 1899 and represents the ninth consecutive year of decrease. The figure of births falling into the 680,000 range is approximately 15 years earlier than forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, as reported by the Kyodo news agency.
The fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime, also hit a record low of 1.15 in 2024, down from 1.20 in 2023. This is significantly below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain a stable population.
Compounding the issue, the number of deaths in 2024 rose to 1.6 million, an increase of 1.9% from the previous year, marking the highest number in the postwar period. This disparity between births and deaths has led to a record natural population decline of 919,237 in 2024, continuing a downward trend for 18 years in a row.
While the number of births and the fertility rate have fallen for nine years straight, there was a slight uptick in the number of marriages in 2024, rising for the first time in two years to 485,063, an increase of 10,322 from the previous year. This comes two years after the number of marriages dipped below half a million for the first time. However, the broader downward trend in marriages seen since the 1970s remains unchanged, which is a key factor influencing birth trends in Japan, where most children are born within wedlock.
Silent Emergency
Japan’s demographic crisis, described by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as a “silent emergency,” is reaching critical levels with profound implications for the nation’s future.
Grim Projections: If current trends persist, Japan’s population of approximately 124 million is projected to shrink significantly, falling to 87 million by 2070. By that time, a striking 40% of the population will be aged 65 or over, placing immense strain on the country’s social and economic infrastructure. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had forecast the number of births falling into the 680,000 range 15 years later than the actual 2024 figures, highlighting the accelerating pace of this decline.
Far-Reaching Implications: A shrinking and aging population poses severe challenges to Japan’s:
- Economy: A declining workforce will lead to reduced productivity, lower tax revenues, and increased pressure on pension and healthcare systems. The IMF estimates that Japan’s economic growth could decline by 0.8 percentage points annually over the next 40 years due to demographics alone.
- National Security: As the country seeks to boost its military to counter potential threats from China and and North Korea, a dwindling pool of younger individuals makes recruitment for the Self-Defense Force increasingly difficult.
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Source: The Guardian
