BIMCO will discuss about the market developments in the latest Shipping Market Overview and Outlook webinar on Tanker on 30 November or 1 December.
- A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid-September. The clean tanker trade has seen the Baltic Exchange Clean Index (BCTI) increase by 21%.
- The outlook for the global economy has once again worsened; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts growth of 2.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.
- The IMF estimates a 25% probability that the global economy will slide into recession, while its alternative downside scenario estimates growth of only 1.2% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024.
- Minor increases in oil production and consumption combined with increased refining capacity in oil producing countries lead us to forecast cargo demand growth in 2023 of 0.5-1.5% in the crude tanker market and 2-3% in the product tanker market. In 2024, we are projecting cargo demand growth of 0.5-1.5% in both markets. The EU’s forthcoming ban on Russian oil and oil products is expected to increase average haul in both markets by 3-4% in 2023 and add to overall demand growth.
- Supply growth will be minor in both the crude and product tanker markets. Both fleets will grow by 1.0% in 2023, while the product tanker fleet will remain static in 2024 and the crude tanker fleet will fall by 0.4%. The implementation of EEXI and CII regulations may reduce average sailing speed in both markets by 2-3% and cause capacity supply to fall by 1-2% in 2023.
- Overall, we still expect solid improvements in trading conditions for both tanker markets in 2023, followed by minor improvements in 2024. Nevertheless, risks to cargo demand remain but are more likely to temper improvements than eliminate them.
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