With the decision to delay the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts to December instead of October, we looked at the impact this delay will have on VLCC utilization, reports Breakwave Adviors.
VLCC Utilization
Currently, VLCC utilization from OPEC+ origins is below the 12-month average at a time when VLCC utilization is lackluster globally
- However, the delay in unwinding the cuts will translate to the following lost crude exports: 180kbd in Oct, 360kbd in Nov, and 180kbd in Dec
Factoring in the proportion of OPEC+ exports carried on VLCCs, this only translates to around 8 lost VLCC voyages due to the phase-out delay
- As the average daily utilization of VLCCs from OPEC+ is about 308 vessels, 8 missed voyages over 3 months is insignificant
Even if production cuts were being phased in from October as originally planned, the expected seasonal pickup in Q4 demand instead of extra OPEC+ production would have provided the majority of VLCC employment by a wide margin.
Lacklustre MR Demand
Lacklustre MR demand for voyages leaving Northeast Asia coupled with supply-side pressure is pushing the region’s MR freight rates to18- month lows
However, utilization for voyages within NE Asia is robust, but a lack of demand for longer-haul voyages to Oceania is keeping vessel supply in the region elevated
- Tonne-day demand for voyages within NE Asia over the last two months has been high, especially for diesel cargoes
- This underscores the problem: there is a lot of product in the region and inadequate demand, which is pressuring refinery margins and keeping stocks fairly high
Though seaborne exports may increase in the short term to compensate for weaker domestic consumption in NE Asia, if demand remains muted there will continue to be pressure on the region’s MR demand
Chinese CPP export quotas could offer a short-term boost to MRs, but this will likely pressure the region’s refinery margins further
LPG Freight Rates
LPG/Ethane tonne-miles passing through the Panama Canal have rebounded to pre-drought levels
- However, in August global LPG/Ethane tonne-miles have receded, likely from lack of demand
- Arrivals of LPG into top ports have been stagnating for the past few months
- Chinese imports of Ethane have also trended lower over the past two months, further pressuring tonne-miles
LPG freight rates have also fallen due to weaker demand
- Also contributing to slowing tonne-miles were lower Chinese PDH margins and run rates (Argus), plus the narrowing LPGnaphtha spread, which makes naphtha a more attractive cracker feedstock
- As the drought situation in the Panama Canal has improved, we are likely to see tonne-miles via the Panama Canal returning to normalcy and likely increase as winter LPG demand from NE Asia is on the horizon
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Source: Breakwave
