- Global bunker indices declined further across all major fuel grades in Week 51
- Scrubber spreads narrowed but remained below the USD 100 breakeven level
- European gas prices continued a moderate downtrend amid weaker demand
- Most major bunker hubs remained undervalued according to MABUX MDI
According to the MABUX Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 51, 2025, global bunker markets extended their downward trend by the end of the reporting period, although early signs of a corrective rebound were emerging at the time of writing.
Global Bunker Indices Continue to Fall
By the end of Week 51, all global MABUX bunker indices posted notable declines. The 380 HSFO index fell by USD 14.81 week-on-week to USD 385.65/MT, dropping below the USD 400/MT threshold. The VLSFO index decreased by USD 16.65 to USD 448.02/MT, while the MGO LS index recorded the steepest decline, falling by USD 25.91 to USD 722.95/MT. Despite the sustained downward movement, the global bunker market was showing early indications of an upward corrective rebound.
Scrubber Spread Remains Below Breakeven Levels
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), representing the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO, declined by USD 1.84 to USD 82.37. While remaining above the USD 80.00 threshold, the spread stayed consistently below the psychological USD 100.00 breakeven level. The weekly average SS value, however, increased by USD 1.27.
In Rotterdam, the SS Spread narrowed by USD 1.00 to USD 50.00, although the port’s weekly average rose by USD 3.17. Singapore also recorded a USD 1.00 contraction in the spread to USD 79.00, slipping below USD 80.00, while its weekly average declined by USD 4.17. Overall, SS indicators continued to move in mixed directions without forming a clear trend, supporting the relative economic attractiveness of conventional VLSFO compared with the 380 HSFO plus scrubber option. Further fluctuations are expected next week.
ECA Spread Contracts in Key Mediterranean Ports
By the end of the week, the Istanbul ECA Spread declined by USD 5.00 to USD 85.00, with the weekly average easing by USD 3.33. In Venice, the spread narrowed sharply by USD 33.00 to USD 77.00, falling below the USD 100.00 threshold, while the weekly average dropped by USD 34.16. Although both ports showed contracting ECA Spreads, the movement has not yet become sustainable. A moderate upward corrective rebound is expected in the coming week.
Gas and LNG Markets Remain Under Pressure
Weaker global gas demand, particularly in Asia, continued to reduce competition for Atlantic Basin LNG cargoes. LNG supply growth in 2025 is exceeding demand, with U.S. Atlantic shipments reaching multi-year highs. Milder European weather forecasts have reduced heating demand expectations, limiting upward pressure on TTF prices. Market activity remained within a relatively narrow range.
As of 16 December, European gas storage facilities were 69.89% full, down 2.54 percentage points week-on-week and 1.44 percentage points below levels at the start of 2025. During Week 51, the European TTF benchmark fell by €0.725/MWh to €26.764/MWh.
LNG Bunker Prices Rise at Sines
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines increased by USD 12.00/MT to USD 728/MT. This shift moved the price spread in favor of conventional fuel for the first time since October 20, 2025, with the differential widening to USD 27/MT, compared with USD 16/MT in favor of LNG the previous week. As of December 15, MGO LS at Sines was assessed at USD 701/MT.
MDI Signals Continued Undervaluation Across Major Hubs
By the end of Week 51, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) showed that most bunker segments across Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued.
In the 380 HSFO segment, all four ports stayed undervalued. Average weekly MDI values increased by 3 points in Rotterdam and 2 points in Houston, while declining by 2 points in Singapore and 4 points in Fujairah.
In the VLSFO segment, all ports also remained undervalued. The MDI decreased by 1 point in both Rotterdam and Singapore, fell by 4 points in Fujairah, and rose by 3 points in Houston, where the index remains close to the 100% MBP/DBP correlation level.
In the MGO LS segment, Fujairah moved into the overvalued zone, becoming the only overvalued hub, with its MDI rising by 28 points. Rotterdam and Singapore saw MDI declines of 10 points each, while Houston recorded an increase of 6 points. Singapore’s MDI moved closer to the 100% correlation level.
After the reappearance of one overvalued port in the previous week, the overall balance of overvalued and undervalued hubs remains mixed. However, undervaluation is expected to remain the dominant trend in the global bunker market in the near term.
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Source: Sergey Ivanov on LinkedIn
