MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook

• The MABUX Bunker Weekly Outlook for Week 06, 2024, provides insights into the global bunker indices, revealing a moderate decline in the 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO indices.
• The Scrubber Spread experiences a slight decrease, with fluctuations observed in Rotterdam and Singapore.
• The report also highlights shifts in LNG supplies to the EU and the changing landscape of gas production sources.
• The MDI index showcases trends in four major ports, analyzing the 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO LS segments.
• Alternative fuel orders, particularly methanol and LNG-fueled vessels, witnessed a robust month in January, indicating the industry’s evolving landscape.

In Week 06, 2024, the MABUX global bunker indices reported a moderate decline across the board. The 380 HSFO index fell by 8.74 USD, approaching the 500 USD mark. The VLSFO index decreased by 10.00 USD, and the MGO index lost 9.56 USD. Despite this, the market displayed a moderate upward correction at the time of writing.

Scrubber Spread Trends

The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) witnessed a slight decrease, with the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO dropping by $1.26. Rotterdam experienced a significant drop in SS Spread, nearing the $100 mark, while Singapore saw a less pronounced decrease. Signs of a shift in the SS Spread trend towards reduction were observed during the week.

LNG Supplies and Prices

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies to the EU’s gas transportation system reached a three-month low in January, comprising 10.65 billion cubic meters. The report details the share of various gas production sources in Europe. The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines showed a moderate increase, reaching 672 USD/MT, with a narrowed price difference compared to conventional fuel.

MDI Index Trends

The MDI index highlights trends in selected ports for the 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO LS segments. All four ports for 380 HSFO remained undervalued, with varying changes in underpricing levels. The VLSFO segment saw overcharging in three ports, while Rotterdam remained undercharged. In the MGO LS segment, Houston moved into the overvalued zone, while the other three ports remained underpriced.

Alternative Fuel Orders

DNV reported a robust month for alternative fuel orders in January, with 23 methanol-fueled vessels and 10 LNG-fueled ships ordered. The container segment dominated methanol-fueled vessel orders, while car carriers and tankers led LNG-fueled ship orders. A record 24 LNG ship deliveries marked significant growth in this segment, with the methanol-fueled ship orderbook expanding rapidly. The report anticipates the world bunker indices to have stabilized at current levels, with no firm trend expected in the market for the upcoming week.

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Source: Sergey Ivanov (LinkedIn)

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