- Global bunker fuel indices showed a moderate decline in Week 29, while price spreads and market differentials indicated continued market volatility and an absence of a clear directional trend.
- EU gas storage policy was revised to enhance flexibility amid ongoing replenishment efforts; meanwhile, LNG bunker fuel prices slightly declined, narrowing the price gap with conventional fuels.
- A new ICCT study found that reducing the global sulphur cap to 0.10% could significantly cut air pollutants and accelerate the shift toward cleaner marine fuels.
During Week 29, global bunker prices tracked by MABUX experienced a moderate dip across all fuel segments. The 380 HSFO index slipped by USD 1.55, dropping from USD 470.18/MT to USD 468.63/MT, continuing to hover well below the USD 500.00 level. VLSFO prices declined by USD 4.92 to settle at USD 560.07/MT, while the MGO index fell by USD 3.44 to reach USD 790.76/MT. Market dynamics remain mixed and lack a definitive trend, reflecting the transitional phase the bunker industry is currently navigating, according to MABUX on LinkedIn.
Scrubber Spread (SS) Narrows Further
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread—the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—narrowed by USD 3.37, landing at USD 91.44. This movement again distances the index from the USD 100.00 breakeven mark for scrubber installations. The weekly average also decreased by USD 3.68. In regional markets, Rotterdam’s spread dropped by USD 6.00 to USD 71.00, although the weekly average slightly increased by USD 0.17, suggesting temporary stabilisation. Singapore’s spread narrowed by USD 6.00 to USD 103.00, dipping below the USD 100.00 threshold briefly during the week. The weekly average in Singapore declined by USD 4.00, underscoring the market’s ongoing volatility. No significant changes are expected next week, with mixed trends likely to persist.
EU Relaxes Gas Storage Mandates Amid Market Volatility
The European Parliament has updated its rules on natural gas storage to improve flexibility and manage energy costs during periods of high demand. The new regulation allows EU countries to reach 90% storage capacity anytime between October 1 and December 1, replacing the previous fixed deadline of November 1. Additionally, in the face of speculative market conditions, member states can now deviate from the 90% target by up to 10 percentage points. This flexible requirement has also been extended to remain in effect until the end of 2027.
As of July 15, EU regional storage facilities were 63.24% full, up by 2.32% from the previous week but down 8.09% compared to the start of the year. The benchmark TTF gas price slightly increased by 0.226 EUR/MWh to 34.445 EUR/MWh, indicating steady progress in storage replenishment.
LNG Bunker Fuel Prices Decline Slightly
In the port of Sines (Portugal), the price of LNG used for bunkering fell by USD 3 over the past week, settling at USD 815/MT. Meanwhile, MGO LS was priced at USD 808/MT, narrowing the price differential to just USD 7 in favor of conventional fuels, down from a USD 10 gap the week before. These shifts suggest increasing price convergence between LNG and traditional marine fuels.
Market Differential Index (MDI) Trends Remain Mixed
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which compares real-time market prices (MBP) with the MABUX Digital Benchmark (DBP), showed varied trends across key global ports:
380 HSFO Segment: All four major ports—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—remained undervalued. MDI dropped by 3 points in Rotterdam, rose by 3 points in Singapore, increased by 5 points in Fujairah, and stayed unchanged in Houston.
VLSFO Segment: Rotterdam continued as the only overvalued port, with MDI rising by 3 points. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undervalued. MDI increased by 8 points in Singapore and 3 points in Fujairah, while Houston’s index fell by 2 points, remaining near the USD 100.00 threshold.
MGO LS Segment: Rotterdam showed full alignment between MBP and DBP, indicating pricing parity. Other ports remained undervalued: Singapore’s MDI dropped by 9 points, Fujairah by 11 points, and Houston by 15 points. Notably, Fujairah’s MDI remains above USD 100.00.
Overall, the global picture is still one of undervaluation across most hubs and fuel types. These MDI patterns are expected to persist into next week.
ICCT Study Proposes Lower Sulphur Cap for Cleaner Shipping
A new report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) recommends tightening the global sulphur limit for marine fuels from 0.50% to 0.10%. The study examined three potential pathways:
Scrubber Max: Ships switch from VLSFO to HSFO using exhaust scrubbers.
Scrubber Allowed: Transition from VLSFO to MGO while retaining the option for HSFO with scrubbers.
Distillate Only: Complete ban on scrubbers, requiring all vessels to run on MGO.
According to the study, the proposed 0.10% sulphur cap would yield substantial environmental benefits. Sulphur oxide emissions would fall by 75–85%, PM2.5 by 46–66%, and black carbon by 27–41%, depending on the scenario. It would also drive broader adoption of distillates and reduce the cost gap between fossil-based and low-emission fuels, further supporting the shift toward sustainable shipping practices.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
As of the end of Week 29, the global bunker market continues to show signs of settling into a trend, though volatility and multidirectional price movements are likely to continue in the near term. While no major structural changes are expected, attention will remain focused on price spreads, regulatory adjustments, and the evolving fuel transition landscape.
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Source: MABUX on Linkedln
