By the close of the 17th week of 2025 (ending April 25th), the global bunker fuel indices reported by MABUX showed a continued, albeit moderate, upward correction in prices, reports MABUX on LinkedIn.
Global Scrubber Spread
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), representing the price difference between 380 High Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO) and Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), continued its moderate decline this week, falling by $3.33 from $74.75 to $71.42. This brings the spread closer to the $70.00 mark. The weekly average of the global SS index also decreased by $3.51.
Regionally, in Rotterdam, the Scrubber Spread saw an increase of $5.00, rising from $30.00 last week to $35.00 this week. Despite this weekly increase, the Rotterdam SS remains below the $40.00 level. Interestingly, the weekly average of the SS in Rotterdam actually decreased significantly by $10.33.
In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread decreased by $1.00, from $58.00 last week to $57.00 this week. The weekly average of the SS in Singapore also saw a decrease of $6.50.
Currently, the global and port-specific Scrubber Spread indices are all quoted well below the $100.00 mark, which is considered the SS Breakeven point. This situation continues to favor the higher profitability of using VLSFO directly compared to the combination of 380HSFO and a scrubber system.
In related energy news, the latest IEA Gas Report projects a significant 25% increase in LNG imports into Europe in 2025. This anticipated rise is attributed to increased storage requirements and a reduction in Russian pipeline gas supplies. Conversely, LNG imports into Asia are expected to decline in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in demand from China.
As of April 22nd, European regional gas storage facilities were 37.02% full. This represents a decrease of 6.67% compared to the previous week and a substantial 34.31% decrease from the start of the year, when storage levels were at 71.33%. After two consecutive weeks of growth, gas reserves in EU storage facilities have resumed their downward trend. By the end of the 17th week, the European gas benchmark TTF (Title Transfer Facility) remained relatively stable, experiencing a minor decrease of 0.163 euro/MWh to settle at 34.244 euro/MWh, compared to 34.407 euro/MWh in the previous week.
Market Differential Index
At the conclusion of the 17th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) provided insights into the relationship between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) across the 380 HSFO and VLSFO fuel segments in key global bunkering hubs:
380 HSFO Segment:
- Rotterdam and Singapore continued to be in the overvalued zone. The average weekly MDI for Rotterdam decreased by 8 points, while Singapore’s average weekly MDI declined by 1 point. Interestingly, Rotterdam’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation mark, suggesting a strong alignment between market prices and the MABUX benchmark.
- Fujairah and Houston remained in the undervalued zone. The average levels of undervaluation increased in both ports, with Fujairah rising by 6 points and Houston by 11 points.
VLSFO Segment:
- All four key ports – Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston – remained in the undervalued zone.
- The average weekly MDI saw increases in all ports, indicating a slight reduction in the undervaluation gap. Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah each experienced an increase of 12 points in their average weekly MDI, while Houston saw an increase of 6 points.
MGO LS Segment:
- Rotterdam was the only port in the overvalued zone, and its average weekly MDI increased significantly by 21 points.
- Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained in the undervalued zone. Singapore’s average weekly MDI increased by 9 points, and Fujairah’s increased by a substantial 26 points. Houston’s average weekly MDI remained unchanged.
In summary, the MDI analysis for the 17th week shows a mixed picture across different fuel grades and ports. While HSFO in Rotterdam and Singapore was overvalued, VLSFO was consistently undervalued across all key ports. For MGO LS, Rotterdam was overvalued, while the other major ports were undervalued. The changes in average weekly MDIs suggest some adjustments in the relationship between market prices and the MABUX benchmark in various locations.
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Source: MABUX on LinkedIn
