- Global bunker indices continued a moderate decline in Week 34, with HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO showing small reductions, while the scrubber spread remained well below the $100 breakeven mark.
- U.S. LNG exports to Europe rose sharply year-on-year, supporting regional demand despite softer TTF prices and slower storage injections.
- Singapore reported its highest monthly bunker sales of 2025 in July, led by strong HSFO demand and record volumes of B100 biofuel, while LNG sales dropped to a four-month low.
By the end of the 34th week, global bunker indices reflected a steady downward movement. The 380 HSFO index slipped closer to the 450 USD/MT mark, while VLSFO and MGO values also registered minor declines. Overall, the bunker market showed mixed directions without a clear trend, according to a LinkedIn update by Sergey Ivanov, Director at MABUX.
Scrubber Spread and LNG Market Developments
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS), which reflects the price gap between 380 HSFO and VLSFO, showed little movement during the week, rising marginally by $0.02 from $86.11 to $86.13. The spread remains well below the breakeven threshold of $100.00, with the weekly average increasing slightly by $0.62. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread advanced by $5.00 to $60.00, supported by a weekly average gain of $3.17. Singapore, by contrast, saw no change, with the differential holding steady at $91.00, while its weekly average slipped by $1.84. Market stabilization suggests limited shifts in the spread over the coming week, with conventional VLSFO continuing to show stronger profitability compared to HSFO with scrubber use.
At the same time, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe recorded a significant year-on-year increase of 61%. The growth has been driven by lower wind and hydroelectric generation, reduced storage levels following the last heating season, and the European Union’s strategy to expand U.S. energy imports as part of trade rebalancing measures. Europe is expected to sustain high LNG demand despite average prices reaching $8.34 per thousand cubic feet during the first eight months of the year.
As of August 19, European gas storage facilities were 74.21% full, reflecting a weekly rise of 1.94% and standing 2.88% higher than at the beginning of the year. However, the rate of storage injections has slowed slightly. Meanwhile, the regional benchmark TTF continued to ease, falling by 1.182 euros/MWh to 31.227 euros/MWh from 32.409 euros/MWh in the previous week.
LNG Bunker Prices and Market Differential Trends
By the close of the week, LNG prices as bunker fuel at the port of Sines, Portugal, declined by $27.00 to $741 per metric ton, compared with $768 per metric ton the previous week. The price gap between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed slightly but still favored conventional options. On August 19, the difference stood at $27.00, down from $39.00 a week earlier, as MGO LS in Sines was priced at $714 per metric ton.
The MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which measures the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the digital benchmark MABUX (DBP), continued to signal undervaluation across all major bunker hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—at the end of the 34th week.
In the 380 HSFO segment, average undervaluation rose by 4 points in Rotterdam, 5 points in Singapore, and 8 points in Fujairah, while Houston recorded a 5-point decline. Fujairah’s MDI moved closer to the $100 mark. The VLSFO segment saw stable undervaluation in Rotterdam but increases of 6 points in Singapore, 9 points in Fujairah, and 2 points in Houston. In the MGO LS segment, MDI values fell by 3 points in Rotterdam, 1 point in Singapore, and 9 points in Fujairah, but edged higher by 1 point in Houston. Rotterdam remained close to achieving full MBP/DBP correlation, while Fujairah continued its gradual approach toward the $100 threshold.
Overall, the structure of undervalued and overvalued ports showed little change over the week. However, the MGO LS segment indicated a gradual shift toward overvaluation, suggesting that several ports may reach overvalued levels in the coming week.
Singapore Bunker Sales Trends
Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, reported total marine fuel sales of 4,918,000 metric tons in July, the highest monthly volume since the start of the year. Sales of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) reached 2,372,100 metric tons, lower than the 2,485,700 metric tons recorded in July 2024 but up from June’s 2,311,000 metric tons. High sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sales amounted to 1,964,400 metric tons, posting gains on both a yearly and monthly basis.
Marine gasoil sales stood at 3,900 metric tons, down year-on-year and month-on-month, while low-sulphur marine gasoil rose to 416,000 metric tons, showing growth in both comparisons. In the bioblends segment, VLSFO with a biocomponent totaled 80,500 tonnes—the second-lowest monthly figure of the year. HSFO with a biocomponent recorded 35,300 tonnes, higher than the previous year but lower than in June. Bioblend LSMGO sales continued for the fourth consecutive month at 1,800 tonnes. Meanwhile, B100 sales reached 2,600 tonnes, setting a new record for the port.
LNG bunker sales, which had surged to 55,400 tonnes in June, fell back to 41,500 tonnes in July—the lowest level since March. No volumes of methanol or ammonia were recorded during the month. Cumulatively, Singapore sold 31,897,400 tonnes of marine fuels in the first seven months of 2025, slightly above the 31,848,200 tonnes recorded in the same period of 2024.
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Source: Sergey Ivanov, Director at MABUX
